Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
580 FXXX12 KWNP 311231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 31 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate levels (R1-Minor). Region 4197 (S18W17, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1.3 flare at 30/1409 UTC and an M1.2 flare at 30/1559 UTC. This region was mostly stable with some minor decay noted in the intermediate spot area. Region 4199 (N04W03, Cai/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a long-duration M2.7 flare at 30/2002 UTC. The remaining regions were stable. An asymmetric full-halo CME associated with the long-duration M2.7 flare at 30/2002 UTC from AR4199 was first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at ~30/2030 UTC. Analysis suggests this CME will arrive during the latter half of 01 Sep. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 02 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated, but continued a gradual decline toward background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 31 Aug-02 Sep. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 02 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 10 nT, and the Bz component varied between +8/-6 nT. Solar wind speed began to increase from a low of ~350 km/s to a peak of ~470 km/s after 31/0230 UTC. The phi orientation was predominately negative. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced conditions are expected on 31 Aug-01 Sep under negative polarity CH HSS influences. Stronger enhancements are likely late on 01 Sep through most of 02 Sep with the anticipated arrival of the 30 Aug asymmetric full-halo CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Aug-01 Sep under negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G2 (Moderate) storming are likely, with a chance for G3 (Strong) storm periods, late on 01 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of the 30 Aug asymmetric full halo CME. On 02 Sep, periods of G3 (Strong) storming are likely, with a chance for G4 (Severe) storm periods, as CME influences continue.