Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
374 FXXX12 KWNP 260031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 26 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4351 (S04W34, Cao/beta) was the most active region, producing multiple low-level C-flares, as well as a C6.3 flare at 25/1030 UTC. Overall decay was noted in this region for most of the period, with slight redevelopment near the leader spot at the end of the day. During the latter part of the period, prolonged flaring around the C3 level was observed near Region 4341 (S10W74, Cso/beta). Coronal dimming and field line movement was noted at and just beyond the limb near this activity, indicating a CME was likely associated with this event. Analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available to determine if the CME has an Earth-directed component. Following the flaring from near Region 4341, Region 4349 (S14W06, Dso/beta) produced a C4.9 flare. Shortly after that, Region 4342 (N15W72, Dso/beta) produced a C7.9 flare at 25/2143 UTC, the largest flare of the period, as it reached the northwestern limb. Analysis will also be conducted on this event as well when coronagraph imagery becomes available. Region 4355 (S12E31, Cao/beta) was the only other region to exhibit growth during the period. Region 4353 remained mostly inactive during the period, despite still being the most complex region on the disk. The remaining numbered active regions were relatively stable and quiet. The aforementioned C6.3 flare event was accompanied by coronal dimming as evidenced in GOES SUVI 195 imagery. Subsequent analysis indicated the associated CME was directed well ahead of Earth, with no impacts expected. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) on 26-28 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,154 pfu observed at 25/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 26-28 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 25-27 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weakening positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field averaged near 6 nT, with the Bz component fluctuating between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds underwent a gradual increase at the beginning of the period, seeing a peak near 645 km/s at 25/0954 UTC, before decreasing to end the period near 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... Positive polarity CH HSS effects are expected to gradually diminish over 26 Jan into the first half of 27 Jan. The latter half of 27 Jan should see a negative polarity CH HSS move into a geoeffective position, bringing additional enhancements to the solar wind environment. Additional enhancements are likely on 28 Jan as the brunt of the CH HSS settles in. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period early on 26 Jan, as positive polarity CH HSS influence persists. Decreasing positive polarity CH HSS influence over 26-27 Jan should bring geomagnetic activity back to quiet to unsettled levels. By the end of the day on 27 Jan, conditions are anticipated to increase to mostly unsettled levels, with an isolated active period as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely early on 28 Jan as the negative polarity CH HSS effects increase.