Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
748 FXXX12 KWNP 101231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 10 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was an impulsive C9.2/Sf flare at 09/2302 UTC from Region 4374 (N11E65, Cko/beta). Region 4366 (N14W78, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced four C-class flares and remains the most magnetically complex region on the visible disk. While Region 4371 (S23W29, Hsx/alpha) decreased in extent, it produced three C-class flares during the period. The other four numbered regions on the disk remained relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely (65%), with a chance (25%)for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 10-12 Feb, primarily due to the eruptive potential of Region 4366. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,764 pfu observed at 09/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 10-12 Feb. There is a chance (25%) for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 10-12 Feb due to the eruptive potential and location of Region 4366. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly disturbed during this period under negative polarity CH HSS influences and possible glancing impact of the CME that left the Sun on 03 Feb. Solar wind speeds followed a declining trend for early in the period, decreasing from about 450 km/s to a minimum near 375 km/s, before rising steadily back to 450 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) strength remained generally steady around 9 nT. The North-South component of the magnetic field (Bz) remained primarily northward throughout the period, but reached a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. The Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... The solar wind environment near Earth is likely to remain mildly disturbed for the remainder of 10 Feb, with the influences caused by the negative polarity CH HSS and glancing CME waning down. Undisturbed solar wind conditions are likely on Feb 11-12 as there is no transient arrival anticipated. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of 10 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS influences and any CME enhancements diminish throughout the day. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 11-12 Feb.