831
FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Nov 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued to be at very low levels in the past 24h.
Region 4566 (S06E53, Fao/beta-gamma-delta) showed growth in area and
magnetic complexity and was the main responsible for the B-class flares
of the period. Region 4564 (N03W02, Axx/alpha) continued decaying while
Region 4565 (N14W20, Hsx/alpha) remained stable during the day.

A coronal activity was observed during the period, likely associated
with a slow-lifted filament beyond the west-limb. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach low levels, with a chance for M-class
flares and a slight chance for X-class events on 04-06 Nov, mostly due
to Region 4566 configuration and development.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 4,077 pfu at 03/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels on 04-05 Nov, returning to moderate levels on 06 Nov. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 06 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued reflecting waning positive polarity CH
HSS influences. Total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength was
around 5 nT and the Bz (north-south) component mostly negative, reaching
as far south as -5 nT.

Solar wind speeds continued decreasing from 400 km/s levels down to 325
km/s at the end of the period. Phi angle remained mostly in the positive
sector (away from the Sun) in the past 24h.

.Forecast...
The solar wind near-Earth is expected to remain undisturbed on 04 Nov,
as the ongoing positive polarity CH HSS influences vanish. Mild
disturbances are anticipated (with low confidence) on 05-06 Nov, due to
a weak glancing blow from 01 Nov CME and possible influences of a
previously observed small positive polarity CH HSS (no longer visible).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels in the past 24h.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels
on 04 Nov as the ongoing positive polarity CH HSS influences are no
longer significant near-Earth. Unsettled to active conditions are
anticipated (with low confidence) on 05-06 Nov as a response to possible
influences of a small positive polarity CH HSS and the 01 Nov CME
glancing blow near Earth.