Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
451 FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate levels with M-class (R1-Minor) flares observed from two separate regions. Region 4197 (S18E16, Eki/beta-gamma) produced an M1.1 flare observed at 28/1416 UTC and an M1.0/Sn at 28/1903 UTC. This region remains the largest, most complex on the disk. It saw some increased magnetic complexity and indicated some intermediate spot growth. Region 4203 (N12W89, Dao/beta) produced an M1.2 at 18/1711 UTC and an M1.5 at 28/2040 UTC as it approached the W limb. Region 4191 (N12W27, Ehi/beta), the second largest region on the disk, showed minor spot loss in the trailer portion. Otherwise, the region has been quiet and stable. Region 4200 (S08W27, Dai/beta) showed some intermediate spot development. A new unnumbered region became visible on the NE limb. The other spots remained quiet and stable. An active filament, centered near N50W25, was observed lifting off northward near 28/0400 UTC. However, limited coronagraph imagery was available to analyze any potential ejecta. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels through 30 Aug due to M-class flare activity with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare event. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux alert was ended at 27/1510 UTC with a peak flux of 13.9 pfu observed at 27/0740 UTC. Proton levels are still elevated, but showing a steady trend of decline. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 31 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue a slow, steady declining trend towards background levels over the course of 29 August with a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm event remaining through 31 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected nominal levels. Total field ranged 4-7 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds were pretty steady at about 380 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Mostly nominal solar wind conditions are expected through 30 Aug. A slight enhancement is likely on 31 Aug due to another negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are likely through 30 Aug. An increase to quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 31 Aug due to a new negative CH HSS.