Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
860 FXXX12 KWNP 261231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 26 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with only C-class level flares. Region 4291 (S14E19, Eai/beta-gamma) remains to be the largest most complex region on the disk. There was weak flux emergence in its intermediate region producing a new spot that looks to be merging with the trailer. Due to this new growth Region 4291 will maintain its gamma configuration, but is becoming more stable throughout its magnetic field otherwise. Region 4292 (S16W34, Dai/beta) was responsible for a few flares and exhibited growth throughout the period. Circular structure of the flux emergence increases its likelihood for flare activity moving forward. There was a Type II radio sweep at 25/1950 UTC with a velocity of 1050 km/s according to the radio observatory in Hawaii. The associated CME can be seen off the NE part of the disk. Considerable field line movement and ejecta can be seen in the GOES-19 SUVI imagery channels 195 and 304, respectively. Because the source region was beyond the east limb, there poses no impact to Earth. .Forecast... Simple regions throughout the disk will maintain lower chances for flare activity through 28 Nov, with only a 15% chance for M-class (Minor-Moderate) and 1% for X-class (Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased above the 1,000 pfu threshold around 25/1220 UTC and reached a peak of 3,722 pfu. This is due to the geoeffective positioning of the positive polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). Electrons showed a similar pattern during the passage of this CH HSS one Bartel (27 days) rotation ago, but did not increase until winds relaxed. This rotation however, the CH is significantly larger - extending from the equator to the south pole. Influx of electrons may be too great to be dictated by wind speeds this time around. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... Electrons will remain high at geostationary orbit through 27 Nov due to ongoing effects from the CH HSS. Chances for protons becoming elevated are unlikely (1% chance) due to the simplicity of regions on the disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were enhanced due to the geoeffective position of the positive polarity CH HSS. The total interplanetary magnetic field was between 5-7 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +/-6 nT which is typical within a HSS. Solar wind speeds remained between 700-800 km/s. The phi angle remained in the positive (away from the Sun) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters will persist at these levels through the 28 Nov with waning conditions thereafter. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. .Forecast... Due to high solar wind speeds within the CH HSS, isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels will likely continue through 27 Nov. Conditions will diminish to unsettled to active levels 28 Nov.