Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
097 FXXX12 KWNP 261231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 26 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4513 (N04W10, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for an M2.2/1B flare that reached its peak at 26/0634 UTC. This event was accompanied by a 10.7cm radio burst that reached 140 sfu and a type II radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 930 km/s despite its relatively impulsive nature. No resulting CME has been observed in available coronagraph imagery as of the time of this writing. Other activity of note since the last reporting period included an easterly CME first seen in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 25/1548 UTC and another at 25/1948 UTC. The first event likely originated from the vicinity of Region 4513 around 25/1412 UTC while no definitive source could be identified with any confidence for the latter. Never the less, both of these events are currently being modeled and assessed to determine the presence of an Earth-directed. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely to remain at Minor-Moderate (R1-R2) levels, with a slight chance for Strong (R3) activity through 28 Aug, mostly due to the flare history and potential of Region 4513. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,350 pfu at 26/1125 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background-like levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels through 27 Aug, returning to moderate levels on 28 Aug. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 28 Aug, mostly due to the activity, location and development of Region 4513. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at undisturbed levels with solar wind speeds between ~300-340 km/s, total field at or below 5 nT and Bz northward or near neutral. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to continue until midday on 27 Aug, when the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences is anticipated. Additional solar wind disturbances, with increased solar wind densities and total IMF, are likely on 28 Aug due to the impact of the CMEs that left the Sun on 25 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through midday on 27 Aug under ambient solar wind conditions. By mid to late on 27 Aug, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely, due to the onset of CH HSS conditions. G2 (Minor) storms are likely on 28 Aug due to the anticipated impact of the CMEs discussed above.