Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
162 FXXX12 KWNP 211231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 21 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels with only a handful of C-flares throughout the period. Region 4557 (N06W47, Dai/beta-gamma) was the main flare producer, though Region 4551 (S15W76, Eko/beta) did contribute a few as well. Both regions were either stable or in slight decay. Region 4560 (N13W21, Dai/beta-gamma) continued its growth phase, increasing in length and gaining additional spots, but remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 23 Oct, with a chance (25%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 4551 and 4557. M-class flare probabilities decrease to a slight chance (20%) on 23 Oct as Region 4551 exits the visible disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 22 Oct with a chance to reach high levels on 23 Oct due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with no S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms expected through 23 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weak CIR influences ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged approximately 9 nT, with a peak of 11 nT at 20/1439 UTC. The Bz (north-south) component was largely southward throughout the reporting period, reaching sustained maximum southward deflections of -5 to -8 nT several times. However, solar wind speeds remained relatively slow as they gradually increased from 350 km/s to approximately 450 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle was largely positive (away from the Sun). .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist through 21 Oct before beginning to wane on 22 Oct with near ambient-like conditions prevailing on 23 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 21 Oct, as CH HSS effects continue. Unsettled to active periods are expected to continue through 22 Oct and then give way to largely quiet levels on 23 Oct.