Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
329 FXXX12 KWNP 050031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4524 (N12E53, Dso/beta) produced an impulsive M1.2/1n flare at 04/0753 UTC. Other activity from this region also included a Type II (est. 698 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep which were associated with a C6.7/Sf flare that peaked at 04/1930 UTC. This region, as well as Region 4523 (N10E23, Hsx/alpha), displayed some area growth with spot growth evident in Region 4524. Three new regions were numbered this period, all near the east limb; Regions 4525 (N11E66, Bxo/beta), 4526 (S02E69, Bxo/beta) and 4527 (N03E71, Hsx/alpha), with Region 4527 producing a few weak C-class flares. A fast CME erupted off the SE limb late on 03 Sep, becoming visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 03/2224 UTC and CCOR1 at 03/2300 UTC. While this eruption was originally thought to be farsided, triangulation analysis with available STEREO coronagraph imagery indicates there may be an Earth-directed component. Modeling analysis is currently ongoing. Two more eruptions were observed this period. First was a CME associated with the C6.7 first became visible in CCOR1 at 04/2030 UTC and in STEREO coronagraph imagery at 04/2038 UTC. Second was an eruption off the SE limb that became visible in CCOR1 at 04/2215 UTC and STEREO at 04/2153 UTC; triangulation analysis indicates that despite the source location, this eruption may have an Earth-directed component. Modeling analysis of these two is also currently ongoing. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely reach low levels due to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), through 07 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,620 pfu observed at 04/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on 05-07 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 07 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field was was near 6 nT, while Bz was at benign values, ranging from +/- 5 nT throughout the period. Solar wind speeds largely remained under 400 km/s and phi was predominantly negative. benign .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at ambient-like levels through 06 Sep. Enhancements due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) are anticipated by late on 06 Sep to early 07 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail through 06 Sep. Isolated unsettled conditions are likely by late on 06 Sep with unsettled to isolated active levels due on 07 Sep due to aforementioned SSBC effects.