Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
290 FXXX12 KWNP 161231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C5.0/Sf at 16/0358 UTC from Region 4143 (N23W05, Dai/beta). Moderate growth was observed in Regions 4139 (N22W35, Dai/beta-gamma), 4142 (N01E28, Dai/beta-gamma), and 4143. Both 4142 and 4143 contributed to the C-class activity. Only minor growth was observed in Regions 4136 (N19W21, Cko/beta-gamma) and 4145 (S26E14, Cro/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate levels likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 16-18 Jul due to the flare potential of Regions 4139, 4142, and 4143. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,800 pfu at 15/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... Continued influence from the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) will maintain higher than normal electron flux at geostationary orbit through 18 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV flux will be moderate to high, especially during the diurnal maxima, during this time. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 18 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was between 2-8 nT with the Bz component oscillating between +7/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged around 600 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector with brief oscillations into the negative sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH HSS influence through 18 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible, are expected through 18 Jul as HSS conditions persist.