Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
523 FXXX12 KWNP 081231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 May 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. A source beyond the northeast limb, likely the return of old Region 4419 (N15, L=316), produced a long-duration M2.6 flare at 07/1514 UTC, the largest event of the period. Continued growth was observed in Region 4432 (N14W14, Cai/beta), mainly in its intermediate and leader spots. Despite an overall decaying trend, Region 4433 (S16E09, Cao/beta) added a C6.0/1n flare at 07/1757 UTC. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 08-10 May, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 08-10 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 10 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was consistent with CIR effects followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 20 nT. The Bz component was predominantly neutral or northward for most of the period, with isolated southward deviations as low as -12 nT during the latter part of the period. Solar wind speeds increased unsteadily throughout the period from a low of around 330 km/s to a peak over 600 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was in a predominantly positive orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influences through 10 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 08-09 May, and quiet to unsettled levels on 10 May as positive polarity CH HSS influences persist, then diminish.