Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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467
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jun 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1.3 flare at
15/0627 UTC from Region 3712 (S25E14, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 3712
was responsible for the majority of the C-class flare activity as well.
Regions 3712 and 3716 (N10E23, Dsi/beta) both exhibited growth in
intermediate spots. Slight growth was also observed in Region 3717
(N08W33, Cro/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable
or slightly decaying.

Other activity included an approximate 17 degree filament eruption
centered near S45E45 that began at 15/1058 UTC. An associated CME was
observed off the S limb at 15/1136 UTC. Model analysis indicated no
Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
over 16-18 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels through 18 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 16-18 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a CME, possibly the 12
Jun CME. At 15/1103 UTC, a weak shock arrived at the ACE spacecraft.
Total field increased from 6 nT to 14 nT while the Bz initially
deflected southward to near -13 nT. Solar wind speed increased from 368
km/s to 458 km/s before becoming variable between 360-455 km/s. Total
field remained between 10-14 nT. Phi angle was variable.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to continue through early to
midday on 16 Jun followed by a gradual decrease to near nominal levels
by 17 Jun. By late on 17 to early on 18 Jun, another enhancement is
expected with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CME
activity.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, on 16 Jun due to persistent CME
activity. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 17 Jun.
Unsettled to active levels are expected once again on 18 Jun as a
positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.