Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
413 FXXX12 KWNP 171231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels with a M1.1 flare, peaking at 16/1455 UTC, and a few C-class flares, including a C9.9 from beyond the east limb at 17/0621 UTC. A CME associated with a C5.5 flare at 17/0021 UTC was modelled with the ejecta potentially resulting in a glancing blow early on 20 June. No additional Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flaring is expected with a chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 17-19 Jun, mostly driven by Regions 4114 and 4115. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 17-19 Jun due to continued coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) influence. There is a chance for elevated proton flux on 17 June, mainly due to activity associated with Region 4114, before probabilities gradually lessen on 18-19 June. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to display signs of CH HSS as Earth remains geoeffective with the large positive polarity CH in the southern hemisphere. Total field (Bt) remained around 7-10 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +8 and -5 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged 470-520 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation. .Forecast... CH HSS conditions are expected to persist through 19 June. There is a slight chance for an enhancement of solar wind parameters 18 June from the arrival of an interplanetary (IP) shock associated with the CME that occurred in conjunction with a M8.4 flare at 15/1807 UTC. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... CH HSS activity is expected to cause unsettled to isolated active periods through 19 June. There is a slight chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels on 18 June due to the possible arrival of the aforementioned IP shock.