Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
935 FXXX12 KWNP 171253 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class activity observed from Regions 4506 (N12W53, Dso/beta), 4507 (N04W37, Eai/beta-gamma) and 4510 (N13W67, Hsx/alpha). The largest flare of the period was a C8.2/Sn observed at 16/1928 UTC from Region 4506. A slow moving CME was detected from this event, but was modelled and analyzed to not affect Earth. The remaining numbered active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. .Forecast... Isolated C-class flares are expected through 19 Aug, with a slight chance (20%) for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to moderate levels 17-19 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 19 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at under 5 nT, but rose slightly to about 7 nT at 17/0800 UTC. The Bz component was at +/-5-6 nT. Solar wind speeds remained low, with speeds observed between ~290-335 km/s. Phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation. .Forecast... Enhancements in solar wind parameters from a CME that left the Sun over 14 Aug are likely over 17-18 Aug. A return to nominal conditions is expected on 19 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. .Forecast... On Aug 17-18, unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor), is anticipated with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 14 Aug. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 19 Aug.