Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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940
FXXX12 KWNP 150031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Oct 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels due to M-class flare
activity. Region 4246 (N22W43, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.0
flare peaking at 14/0041 UTC and an M3.1 with maximum flux at 14/2036
UTC. Region 4248 (N07W13, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for an
M2.0/1N flare at 14/1247 UTC, that was associated with a Tenflare
(peaking at 160 sfu at 14/1245 UTC) observed by Sagamore Hill and San
Vito USAF RSTN radio stations. Both regions 4246 and 4248 continued to
grow in size and magnetic complexity, and also produced majority of the
C-class flares during the period. The spotless Region 4247 (S12W78)
produced a C3.6 flare peaking at 14/1455 UTC and other regions beyond
both East and West limbs also showed isolated C-class flare activity.
Regions 4250 (N07W07, Cro/beta) and 4252 (S13E38, Hsx/alpha) remained
stable while Region 4251 (N19E12, Axx/alpha) showed decay. A new Region
rotated into the visible solar disk and was assigned the number 4254
(N10E74, Hsx/alpha) during the period.

No new Earth-directed CME was observed at available coronagraph imagery
during the period.

.Forecast...
Minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts are likely for the next 3
days, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, due to the
current and potential flare activity of Regions 4246 and 4248.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 5,130 pfu observed at 14/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels during this period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to nominal to
moderate levels on 15-16 Oct. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 17 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar Wind parameters were slowly returning to nominal levels as the
effect of the negative CH HSS waned. Total interplanetary magnetic field
remained at or below 5 nT level during the whole period, with a few
isolated moments of negative Bz component. Phi angle was predominantly
in the negative sector, as expected during the negative CH HSS
influence. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from about 700 km/s to 550
km/s level.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue gradual waning over the
course of 15 Oct as the influence of negative CH HSS reduces. Disturbed
solar wind conditions are expected by late on 15 Oct, and continuing
through 17 Oct, due to CME arrivals from 11-13 Oct originating from AR
4246.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled over the past 24
hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field will likely remain unsettled to active until late
on 15 Oct when CMEs from 11-13 Oct begin to impact the near-Earth
environment. Moderate storming conditions (G2) are likely on 16 Oct as
CME impacts will perhaps be at their max according to model output. G1
(Minor) storming is likely to continue into 17 Oct.