Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
305 FXXX12 KWNP 020031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decreased to low levels, with only C-flare activity observed. Region 4197 (S18W38, Ehi/beta-gamma) produced C4.9 and C3.9 flares at 01/0325 UTC and 01/1922 UTC, respectively, as it increased slightly in length while undergoing minor decay in its intermediate area. Region 4199 (N04W22, Cai/beta) gained additional spots, but remained relatively quiet. Region 4207 (N30E52, Eao/beta) rotated into better viewing conditions revealing trailing spots, but remained relatively quiet as well. New spots were noted near N18W25, but went unnumbered due to a lack of activity and history. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 04 Sep primarily due to the flare potential exhibited from AR 4197. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually increased to peak flux of 6.47 pfu at 01/1010 UTC likely due to shock front influences ahead of the 30 Aug CME. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02 and 04 Sep with a chance for high levels on 03 Sep due to CME influences. There remains a chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold early to midday on 02 Sep with any secondary shock enhancement. Probabilities decrease to just a slight chance on 03-04 Sep with a large event from AR 4197 being the most likely threat. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were nominal overall with some weak negative polarity CH HSS influences until approximately 01/2025 UTC and the arrival of what was likely the the 30 Aug CME. Total field increased to peaks ranging from 20-26 nT. The Bz component was mostly oriented northward with brief deflections southward of -6 to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds abruptly increased to roughly 600-675 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Strong enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected to continue through 02 Sep due to CME influences before beginning a waning trend on 03 Sep that continues into 04 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels late in the period with a deviation of 58 nT reported at the Canberra magnetometer site. .Forecast... G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming periods are likely primarily during the first half of 02 Aug with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) periods expected thereafter. Unsettled to Active conditions are then expected on 03 Sep as CME effects begin to wane with primarily quiet conditions, with isolated unsettled periods, then prevailing on 04 Sep.