Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
573 FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at moderate levels as Region 4493 (N05W19, Eki/beta-gamma) produced an M3.6 at 22/0635 UTC, which was the largest event of the period and was associated with a 10.7cm radio burst of 200 sfu. Additionally, 4493 produced a C3.4 flare at 22/1553 UTC which was associated with another 10.7cm radio burst of 150 sfu. AR 4493 continued to undergo consolidation in its leading and trailing spots, but showed signs of new flux emergence in its intermediate area during the early hours of the reporting period. Region 4494 (S04E52, Hsx/alpha) developed new, simple spots, but remained uni-polar. The remaining two numbered active regions were relatively stable and quiet. The filament eruption NW of Region 4493 at 21/1045 UTC that was mentioned in the previous discussion was modeled and assessed to be at least partially Earth-directed. While modeling efforts suggest that a bulk of the material should pass north and ahead of Earths orbit, this is low confidence given the faintness of this event in Sun-Earth line focused coronagraph imagery and compounded by likely interaction with the coronal hole in the vicinity of the source location. .Forecast... Additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2 radio blackouts) is likely through 25 July primarily due to the flare potential currently exhibited by AR 4493. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 24 Jul with a chance for high levels returning on 25 Jul with post high speed stream and possible CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 25 Jul with a 5% chance for an S1 or greater event primarily due to the event potential of AR 4493. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced under a sustained negative polarity CH HSS regime and a possible secondary CIR or transient. Total field values reached a peak of 11-12 nT while the Bz component underwent a sustained southward deflection of -5 to -10 nT during the first half of the reporting period before settling to near neutral to northward values. Solar wind speeds were roughly between 400km/s and 482 km/s. Phi became variable between solar sectors after approximately 22/1000 UTC. .Forecast... The current regime is expected to largely continue through 25 Jul. Additional enhancements are possible beginning on late 23 Jul due to a CME that left the Sun 20 Jul with stronger enhancements arriving by early on 24 Jul with the arrival of the aforementioned CME event from 21 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet to active conditions are expected through 24 Jul under negative polarity CH HSS effects combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 20 and 21 July beginning on late day one (23 Jul). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Jul if the latter of the two events arrives at Earth. Again, modeling suggests that a bulk of the material from this event should pass north and ahead of Earth, but higher levels of geomagnetic storming (25% for G2 or greater) cannot be ruled out if this event is indeed more Earth-directed than predicted.