Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
301 FXXX12 KWNP 061231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Low-level C-class X-ray emissions from a source around the W limb were the strongest of the period. Region 4241 (N14W16, Eao/beta) produced a C1.9 flare 06/0849 UTC. Newly numbered Region 4244 (S21E57, Axx/alpha) was quiet as it rotated further from the E limb. Regions 4236 (N10W64, Eac/beta-gamma) and 4232 (N04W57, Dai/beta) remained the largest on the visible disk but did not produce any notable activity in the past 24 hours. Additional activity included a filament eruption near S20E25 that began at around 05/2000 UTC and was ongoing at the time of writing. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... These exists a chance for solar flare activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for strong (R3-Strong), over 06-08 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by the GOES-19 satellite reached high levels, with a peak flux of 23,594 pfu due to continuous +CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24 hrs. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels as the CH HSS continues over 06-08 Oct. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaches the S1 (minor) threshold due to the potential from multiple active regions on the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT for most of the period. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds declined from ~500 to ~390 km/s over the reporting period. Phi angle was primarily oriented in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated, but waning levels over 06-07 Oct due to ongoing CH HSS influence. An additional enhancement is likely over 07-08 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached quiet levels due to waning CH HSS influence. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels over 06 Oct under waning CH HSS influence. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 07-08 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct.