Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
697 FXXX12 KWNP 231231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 23 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. C-class flaring was observed from Regions 4342 (N13W45, Dso/beta), 4345 (S17W42, Eai/beta-delta), 4351 (S05W08, Dai/beta), and 4353 (N17W03, Dao/beta-delta). The largest flare was a C9.5 at 22/1954 UTC. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4348 (S17W71, Cro/beta), 4351, 4353 and new Region 4354 (S13W00, Bxo/beta). Regions 4344 (N19W56, L=52) and 4350 (N21E04, L=353) decayed to plage. All remaining regions were either stable or in slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely (60%) to be at moderate (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) levels, with a slight chance (10%) for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 23-25 Jan, primarily due to the magnetic potential of Regions 4342, 4345, 4351, and 4353. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,365 pfu observed at 22/1420 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold and still returning to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 23-25 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement is expected to continue to decline towards background levels over 23-25 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected high speed stream activity. Solar wind speed fluctuated between ~500-550 km/s. The total magnetic field (Bt) slowly decreased over the reporting period from ~10 nT to ~5 nT, while the Bz (north-south) component was between +8/-7 nT with two intervals of sustained ~-7 nT: one for 4 hrs starting at starting at 22/2045 UTC and another for 2 hrs starting at 23/0645 UTC. Phi angle was variable but largely positive (away from the Sun) for the majority of the reporting period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually diminish with possible intermittent connections with the positive polarity CH HSS over 23-25 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to a period of sustained southward Bz at the end of the reporting period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels on 23 Jan as HSS activity persists. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 24-25 Jan as HSS activity gradually wanes.