Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
993 FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.9 at 24/1021 UTC from Region 4317 (N11E29, Eki/beta-gamma). Slight growth was observed in Regions 4317 and 4319(S09E49, Cri/beta). A new region grew rapidly SE of Region 4316 (S08W12, Cso/beta) and was numbered 4321 (S10W01, Dai/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with an increasing chance for M-class flares over 24-26 Dec due to the return of old Regions 4294 (S15, L=284) and 4296 (S15, L=272). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,560 pfu observed at 23/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 24-26 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 26 Dec. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be influenced by a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed was relatively steady around 700 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-7 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 24-25 Dec as influence from the positive polarity coronal hole persists. Additional enhancements are possible on 24 Dec due to a CME that is expected to pass close to Earth which left the Sun on 20 Dec. Waning conditions are expected on 26 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached unsettled to active levels due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions on 24-25 Dec, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming on 24 Dec, under continued CH HSS effects and possible influences on 24 Dec from a CME (which left the Sun on 20 Dec) that is expected to pass in close proximity to Earth. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 26 Dec under waning HSS conditions.