Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
360 FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 4325 (S09E44, Dao/beta) produced an impulsive M1.3/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 28/2113 UTC, and Region 4317 (N12W34, Dao/beta) produced an M4.2 flare (R1), with a 300 sfu Tenflare, at 28/2239 UTC. Region 4321 (S11W64, Dkc/beta-delta) remained the largest region on the disk and continued to increase the number of intermediate spots, becoming compact in its interior. Both Regions 4324 (N25E51,Dao/beta-gamma) and 4325 (S09E44, Dso/beta) grew in area and spot count. Region 4317 exhibited fading trailer spots. New Regions 4326 (S03W34, Bxo/beta) and 4327 (S20W21, Bxo/beta) developed on the disk and were numbered. The remaining regions remained stable or showed slight decay during the day. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2 Minor-Moderate) on 29-31 Dec due to the flare potential of the current active regions. There is a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares during the 3-day period. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured at geostationary orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,999 pfu observed at 28/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remained at high levels on 29-31 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 31 Dec, with a slight chance for a flux above the threshold of 10 pfu due to the flaring potential of the active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds remained fairly steady through the period from about 450-500 km/s. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength averaged from about 4-7 nT, and the Bz component ranged between +4 to -5 nT. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Mostly ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 29-30 Dec. Solar wind parameters are expected to became enhanced by 31 Dec due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels, with possible isolated unsettled periods, on 29-30 Dec. Quiet to more unsettled periods are expected on 31 Dec due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.