Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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180
FXXX12 KWNP 311231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Dec 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels, with few
C-class flares mostly coming from Regions 4324 (N24E11, Dao/beta-gamma)
and 4325 (S08E04, Eki/beta-delta), both of which had appreciable
magnetic flux emergence and shear. Region 4328 (S13W07, Cro/beta)
exhibited growth while Region 4330 (S16, L=272) decayed to plage. All
remaining active regions were stable or in slight decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.

.Forecast...
There is a chance (50%) for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares, with
a slight chance (20%) for X-class (R3, Strong) flares on 31 Dec-02 Jan,
largely due to Regions 4324 and 4325.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, measured at geostationary orbit by
GOES-19, reached high levels with a peak of 5,612 pfu at 30/1545 UTC,
and decreased to moderate levels after 30/1915 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels 31-02 Jan as we are anticipated to enter a coronal hole
high-speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight
chance (10%) of crossing threshold on 31 Dec-02 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background conditions for the first half
of the reporting period, becoming slightly enhanced after 30/2235 UTC
with the total magnetic field strength (Bt) increasing from an average
of 5 nT to an average of 10 nT. The Bz (north-south) component was
generally positive (northward), ranging from -5 to 10 nT. Solar wind
speed slowly increased over the reporting period from ~400 km/so to ~450
km/s. The phi angle was generally positive (away from the Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to continue enhancing due to
influences from several coronal hole high-speed streams through 01 Jan,
with a possible sector boundary crossing on 02 Jan. 01 Jan is
anticipated to be particularly turbulent due to the potential for a
glancing blow from the interaction of CMEs that left the Sun on 28-30
Dec.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
31 Dec, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming levels on 01 Jan, and unsettled
to active levels on 02 Jan.