586
FXXX12 KWNP 010031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to an X1.1 flare at 30/2050 UTC
from AR 4479 (N16W24, Eki/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with the flare
were Type II (1496 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, a 410 sfu tenflare, and
EUV dimming observed at 30/2059 UTC suggesting a CME emission. Other
activity included an M5.8 flare at 30/1257 UTC from Region 4475 (S09W63,
Dai/beta). Region 4478 (S05W06, Fki/beta-gamma-delta), the largest
region on the disk, was not as active but produced a C9.1 flare at
30/1958 UTC. These three regions appeared to be in a growth phase.
Several small deltas were observed on the periphery of Regions 4478 and
4479.

A full-halo CME associated with the X1.1 flare is first visible in
GOES-19 CCOR-1 imagery at 30/2145 UTC. CME analysis was limited by data
gaps in both SOHO and STEREO-A downlinks at the time of writing, but
preliminary analysis suggests Earth impacts 03-04 Jul.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) due
to the flare potential of Regions 4475, 4478, and 4479.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 5,687 pfu observed at 30/1315 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again reach high
levels on 01 and 03 Jul. Moderate levels are likely on 02 Jul due to the
possible arrival of the 27 Jun CME. There is a slight chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the flare potential
of Regions 4475, 4478, and 4479.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until 30/1102 UTC when a IP
shock was observed at SOLAR-1. Solar wind speed increased from
approximately 330 km/s to 430 km/s. Total field increased from 4 to 9 nT
and subsequently increased to a maximum of 16 nT. The Bz component was
mostly positive with southward deflections reaching -11 nT. Phi angle
was negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on 01 Jul
as CME active persists. Further enhancements are possible late on 01 to
early on 02 Jul with the possible arrival of the 27 Jun CME. A return to
nominal conditions is expected on 03 Jul pending further analysis of the
CME associated with the X1.1 flare.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet until the arrival of the
aforementioned CME that left the Sun on 26 Jun. Unsettled to G1 (Minor)
conditions were observed during the latter half of the UTC day.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) storming is expected, with a chance for isolated periods
reaching G2 (Moderate) through early on 01 Jul as CME activity persists.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02 Jul with the possible
arrival of another CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but confidence is
lower for this event. A return to mostly quiet conditions is likely by
03 Jul pending further analysis of the CME associated with the X1.1
flare.