Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
294 FXXX12 KWNP 300031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4324 (N25E37, Dao/beta-gamma) produced an M2.2/1f peaking at 29/0002 UTC, likely with the contribution of Region 4317 (N12W50, Cso/beta). Region 4317 was also responsible for some of the C-class flares of the day. Region 4325 (S09E31, Dai/beta-gamma) became more magnetically complex and was responsible for an M1.0/Sf flare peaking at 29/0651 UTC and multiple C-class flares during the period. Four new active regions were numbered during the day: Region 4328 (S14E23, Hrx/alpha), Region 4329 (S12E49, Axx/alpha), Region 4330 (S16E54, Axx/alpha) and Region 4331 (S25E64, Hsx/alpha). Few eruptions were observed during the day at SUVI imagery: the first from the cluster of active regions on the southeast quadrant around 29/1500 UTC, with a CME component first visible at coronagraph imagery at 29/1536 UTC; the second from the northeast quadrant around 29/1800 UTC, likely associated with a C3.3 flare that peaked at 29/1827 UTC from Region 4324, with a CME first appearance at coronagraph imagery at 29/1836 UTC; and the last one from the southwest quadrant (near Region 4321), around 29/1939 UTC, with a CME first observed at 29/2012 UTC). All those events are being current analyzed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be Minor to Moderate (R1/R2), with M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 30 Dec, 31 Dec, and 01 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, measured at geostationary orbit, reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,690 pfu observed at 29/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remained at moderate to high levels on 30 Dec to 01 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 01 Jan, with a slight chance for a flux above the threshold of 10 pfu due to the flaring potential of the active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds remained fairly steady through the period from about 375-475 km/s. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength averaged between 3-8 nT. The Bz component ranged between +/-6 nT during the day. Phi was predominantly positive with multiple oscillations into a neutral to weakly negative orientation at the first half of the day. .Forecast... Near background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 30 Dec. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by 31 Dec/early 01 Jan due to influence from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, possibly combined with glancing CME effects from the CME that left the Sun on 28 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. .Forecast... The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels, with possible isolated unsettled periods, on 30 Dec. Active periods are likely late 31 Dec and Minor Storm (R1-Minor) periods are likely early 01 Jan due to the anticipated influences of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS combined with possible glancing CME effects from the CME that left the Sun on 28 Dec.