241
FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jan 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels due to an M7.1/1N flare at 31/1351 UTC
from Region 4324 (N24W00, Dai/beta). Associated with the flare were Type
II (893 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, a 550 sfu 10 cm radio burst, and
a partial halo CME off the NE limb first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 31/1400 UTC. Analysis of the CME indicates an arrival late on
02 Jan to early on 03 Jan.

Slight growth was observed in the trailing spots of Region 4324.
Moderate growth and consolidation occurred in Region 4325 (S08W10,
Eki/beta-gamma), causing it to largely lose its delta configuration.
Region 4325 was responsible for a few C-class flares including a C5.9 at
31/0132 UTC. A new spot group in the NE was numbered Region 4332
(N14E17, Bxo/beta). All other spot groups were either stable or in mild
decay.

A filament erupted off the SE quadrant starting at 01/0506 UTC,
triggering a sympathetic C2.0 flare from Region 4331 (S25E22, Hrx/alpha)
at 01/0537 UTC. An associated CME became visible is coronagraph imagery
at 01/0548 UTC. Analysis is currently ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on
01-03 Jan. M-class activity is most possible from Regions 4324 and 4325.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
3,898 pfu at 31/1340 UTC before decreasing once more to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal
to moderate levels on 01-02 Jan due to CME activity. A return to high
levels is likely by 03 Jan. Based on the proton prediction model of the
M7.1 flare that occurred at 31/1351 UTC, there is a slight chance (20%)
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on 01 Jan, increasing to a chance
(30%) on 02 Jan. Proton probability decreases to a slight chance (10%)
03 Jan.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a solar sector boundary
crossing followed by a possible connection to a negative polarity CH
HSS. The total magnetic field (Bt) ranged from 2-12 nT while the Bz
(north-south) component ranged between -6 and 8 nT. After a short
interval of acceleration early in the reporting period, the solar wind
speed averaged 480 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards
the Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed over 01-03 Jan due to
a combination of CH HSS and CME activity. There is the potential for
glancing influences late on 01 Jan from CMEs that left the Sun on 28-30
Dec and again late on 02 Jan into 03 Jan from the aforementioned CME
associated with the M7.1 flare.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to G1 (Minor)
storming levels on 01 Jan due to the combination of HSS activity and
potential glancing blows from the 28-30 Dec CMEs. By late on 02 Jan to
early on 03 Jan, the arrival of the 31 Dec CME is expected to cause
unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming.