Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
782 FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4508 (N07E27, Cso/beta) produced an impulsive 4.3/1b flare at 14/2155 UTC; the largest of the period. Region 4503 (S17W67, Cao/beta) produced a long-duration C4.1/Sf at 14/0701 UTC with an associated Type-II radio sweep (est. 671 km/s). Region 4507 (N04W01, Dsi/beta) was the largest region on the disk but only produced B-class activity over the past 24 hours. Modest development was observed in the Regions intermediate spots. Only minor changes were observed in the other five spotted active regions on the visible disk. Beginning after 14/0332 UTC, a 25 degree long U-shaped filament centered near S16E22, lifted off the disk. Surge material was observed moving in a westward direction across the disk. Modeling of the event using STEREO-A coronagraph imagery suggested an Earth-directed component, with arrival likely on 17 Aug. .Forecast... Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (15%) for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 17 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to moderate levels 15-17 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 17 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 3-8 nT. The Bz component was observed as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds remained low, with speeds observed between ~340-400 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector. .Forecast... Modest influence from a +CH HSS is expected over 15-16 Aug. Additional enhancements in solar wind parameters from a CME that left the Sun over 14 Aug are likely on 17 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... On 15 Aug, unsettled to active levels are expected in response to +CH HSS influences, with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms. A return to mostly quiet to unsettled levels is likely on 16 Aug as CH HSS influences wane. On Aug 17, an increase to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor), is anticipated with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 14 Aug.