Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
382 FXXX12 KWNP 091231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high (R3-Strong) levels following an X1.7 flare at 09/0719 UTC from Region 4274 (N25W07, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with the flare were Type II (est 804 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as an F10.7cm radio burst (360 sfu). Additionally, the initial indications of a full halo CME were first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at ~09/0748 UTC. Preliminary modeling is underway and an Earth-directed component is likely, given the source location. Additional analysis will be performed as imagery becomes available. Regions 4276 (S15E32, Dao/beta-gamma) and 4277 (S05E31, Dai/beta-gamma) both continued to show slight growth during the period, with each producing a couple of low-level C-flares. New Region 4279 (S11E63, Hsx/alpha) was numbered as it rotated onto the SE limb. The remainder of the spot groups were relatively unchanged and inactive. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong), on 09-11 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 09-11 Nov. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 09-11 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a negative polarity CH HSS regime. Total field strength averaged between 3-5 nT, Bz fluctuated between +/-5 nT, and wind speeds gradually decreased from 700 km/s to just over 500 km/s. Phi was predominately negative with occasional rotations into a positive orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 11 Nov with negative polarity CH HSS influences (09-11 Nov) and the anticipated arrival of a CME from 07 Nov (10-11 Nov). Pending the outcome of current modeling of the CME associated with the X1.7 flare, additional enhancements are possible near the end of the period. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field began the period at active levels before decreasing to quiet to unsettled conditions as negative polarity CH HSS influences slowly diminish. .Forecast... Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 09 Nov in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 10 Nov due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 07 Nov. Isolated active periods are likely on 11 Nov as negative polarity CH HSS influences and any remnant CME effects wane.