652
FXXX12 KWNP 060031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Dec 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4299 (N21E15, Dao/beta-delta)
produced a C7.3/Sn flare at 05/0142 UTC, the strongest of the period.
Region 4296 (S14E10, Eki/beta) and Region 4294 (S15W09,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest on the visible disk despite
slight decay in overall area in the past 24 hours. Only minor changes
were observed in the other numbered active regions. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares are likely over 06-08 Dec, with a slight chance for
X-class flares, given past flare history and the potential of current
active regions on the disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels over 06-08 Dec due to elevated solar wind speeds associated
with the ongoing CH HSS.

A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement
above 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through 08 Dec due to the eruptive potential of
multiple active regions across the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-8 nT. The
Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind speeds
varied mostly between ~600-700 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly
oriented in the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced by the
negative polarity coronal hole HSS over 06-07 Dec. An additional
enhancement is likely late on 07 Dec and in to 08 Dec due to glancing
effects from a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels due to negative
polarity coronal hole influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels over 06 Dec
as influence from the coronal hole slowly wanes. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels are likely on 07-08 Dec due to the anticipated onset of
influence from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec.