Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
747 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class activity from Regions 4506 (N11W38, Bxo/beta) and 4508 (N08E22, Cso/beta). Region 4507 (N04W10, Dai/beta) was the largest spot group on the disk and showed some slight growth. Only minor changes were observed in the remaining regions on the disk. No CMEs new were observed during the period. .Forecast... Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (15%) for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 17 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to moderate levels 15-17 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 17 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 2-6 nT. The Bz component was observed as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds remained low, with speeds observed between ~340-375 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector. .Forecast... Modest influence from a +CH HSS is expected over 15-16 Aug. Additional enhancements in solar wind parameters from a CME that left the Sun over 14 Aug are likely on 17 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. .Forecast... On 15 Aug, unsettled to isolated active levels are expected in response to +CH HSS influences. A return to mostly quiet to unsettled levels is likely on 16 Aug as CH HSS influences wane. On Aug 17, an increase to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor), is anticipated with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 14 Aug.