044
FXXX12 KWNP 100031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Oct 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4547 (N15, L=089) produced
an M1.3 flare (R1-Minor radio blackouts) at 09/1409 UTC. This region has
been off the visible disk for well over 24 hours, so any associated CME
will likely not have an impact at Earth. Region 4549 (N10W41,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) added multiple C-class flares, the largest being a
C4.0 at 09/0539 UTC. This region exhibited decay in its trailer spots,
but continued to experience growth in its leading cluster. Region 4545
(N18W46, Dao/beta) continued to decay with no activity noted during the
period. Region 4548 (S13W14, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive.
Region 4551 (S13E71, Dao/beta) continued to move into view, but remained
inactive. Additionally, a new region formed in the solar northwest and
was numbered AR4552 (N22W21, Cao/beta).

No new CMEs were noted in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels (90%) with M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely (55%) through 12 Oct, primarily due to
the flaring potential of Region 4549.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased to moderate levels with a
peak value of 573 pfu at 09/1205 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was slightly elevated above background levels but still well below
the alert threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach normal to
moderate levels through 11 Oct before increasing to high levels on 12
Oct. There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 12 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a weakly enhanced IMF, likely the result
of glancing transient influences. Solar wind speed was between 335-400
km/s. Total field strength averaged near 6 nT, with an isolated peak of
13 nT. The Bz component was weakly southward with a maximum deviation to
-7 nT. Phi angle slowly oscillated between sectors over the course of
the reporting period.

.Forecast...
Additional enhancements are likely on 10 Oct as a negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position on 10
Oct. Stronger disturbances are anticipated on 11 Oct due to CMEs that
left the Sun on 07-09 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active
period.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with isolated G1 (Minor)
storm levels likely, through 10 Oct as a negative polarity coronal hole
high speed stream becomes geoeffective. G1-G2 conditions are again
anticipated on 11 Oct due to persistent CH HSS effects combined with
additional CME arrivals that left the Sun on 07-09 Oct.