Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
879 FXXX12 KWNP 020031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels. While only low-level C-class activity was observed, the number of flares has increased. Several regions produced a single flare, with others producing multiple. Region 4153 (S27W73, Cao/beta) produced numerous flares, the largest being a C3.4 flare at 01/1239 UTC. Associated with this flare was a CME first observed in STEREO coronagraph imagery at approximately 01/1423 UTC. Modelling and analysis indicated a trajectory well south of the ecliptic, with no impacts at Earth expected. Region 4155 (S09W51, Bxo/beta) added a C3.4 flare at 01/1817 UTC, as well as several smaller flares throughout the period. Region 4167 (N10W24, Dai/beta-gamma) remained the most complex region on the disk, with additional growth in both number of spots and penumbral area. This region added several smaller C-class flares, the largest being a C2.0 at 01/0154 UTC. The remaining numbered regions on the visible disk remained mostly unchanged or exhibited slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 02-04 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,386 pfu observed at 01/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 02-03 Aug, likely returning to low to moderate levels by 04 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 02-04 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained slightly enhanced as the negative polarity CH HSS completed its transit off the visible disk. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-8 nT, while the Bz component saw several southward deflections to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds increased slightly from around 450 km/s to reach as high as ~558 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a waning trend on 02 Aug as the negative polarity CH HSS diminishes. Additional disturbances cannot be ruled out on 02 Aug due to the 30 July CME event mentioned in a previous discussion. Conditions are expected to continue to move towards background levels over 03-04 Aug if no transient features become geoeffective. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with an isolated active period early on 02 Aug, due to lingering CH HSS influence as well as the possible July CME passage. Mostly quiet levels are expected to return on 03-04 Aug under a near-background solar wind regime.