Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
127 FXXX12 KWNP 130031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4246 (N06W16, Dai/beta-gamma) produced a C9.6/1F flare at 12/1350 UTC, the strongest of the period. Region 4246 and Region 4248 (N06E15, Dai/beta-gamma) were the most complex on the visible disk. Both continued to develop over the past 24 hours. Newly numbered Region 4253 (S17W10, Cro/beta) remained simple and quiet. The other spotted active regions were either mostly stable or in decay. A CME associated with the C9.6 flare mentioned above is likely to be Earth-directed, though additional analysis is needed to determine timing. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, over 13-15 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 13-15 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 13-15 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from CIR to high speed stream. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 16 nT but decreased to between 6-8 nT after 12/0956 UTC. The Bz component was primarily northward, but did briefly reach as far south as -10 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~500 km/s to a peak of ~750 km/s early in the UT day. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels over 13-14 Oct due to persistent effects from the negative polarity CH/HSS. A minor enhancement is possible on 15 Oct from a passing CME that left the Sun on 11 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels during the last 24 hrs. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active to G1 (Minor) storm levels over 13 Oct due to the persistent influence of the negative polarity CH/HSS. Unsettled conditions are likely on 14 Oct as influence from the CH/HSS wanes. Unsettled conditions are again likely on 15 Oct due to potential influence from a passing CME that left the Sun on 11 Oct.