Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
604 FXXX12 KWNP 301231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4325 (S08E17, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) became more magnetically complex with roughly steady flux emergence in its intermediary region. Several of the regions in the southeast quadrant showed minor growth: Region 4328 (S14E08, Cro/beta), Region 4329 (S12E35, Bxo/beta), Region 4330 (S16E41, Bxo/beta). All other regions were either stable or in decay. Several eruptions were observed in the first half of the reporting period in SUVI imagery: the first from the cluster of active regions on the southeast quadrant around 29/1500 UTC, with a CME component first visible at coronagraph imagery at 29/1536 UTC; the second from the northeast quadrant around 29/1800 UTC, likely associated with a C3.3 flare that peaked at 29/1827 UTC from Region 4324 (N23E22, Dao/beta-gamma), with a CME first appearance at coronagraph imagery at 29/1836 UTC; and the last one from the southwest quadrant near Region 4321 (S10W90, Dkc/beta-delta), around 29/1939 UTC, with a CME first observed at 29/2012 UTC). Analysis suggests that while none of these are fully Earth-directed, their interaction may result in a glancing blow on 01 Jan. Another CME was observed in the later half of the reporting period, first visible in LASCO C2 at 30/0736 UTC. This eruption is potentially associated with an eruption near Region 4324 that resulted in long-lasting post-eruption arcade loops. This CME is currently under analysis. .Forecast... R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flares are likely (55%), with a slight chance (10%) for R3 (Strong) flares on 30 Dec-01 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, measured at geostationary orbit, reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,690 pfu observed at 29/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remained at high levels through 31 Dec, before decreasing to moderate levels on 01 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 01 Jan, with a slight chance (10%) for crossing the 10 pfu threshold due to the flaring potential of the active regions on the visible solar disk, particularly Regions 4317 and 4321. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds remained fairly steady through the reporting period, averaging ~400 km/s. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) was also fairly steady with an average of ~7 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component ranging between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle remained positive (away from the Sun) throughout the reporting period. .Forecast... Near-background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 30 Dec, but are expected to become enhanced 31 Dec and 01 Jan due to influence from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, possibly combined with glancing CME effects. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. .Forecast... Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels, with possible isolated unsettled periods, on 30 Dec. 31 Dec-01 Jan are expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a chance (40%) of isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods on 01 Jan, due to the anticipated influences of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, possibly combined with glancing CME effects.