Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
480 FXXX12 KWNP 051231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 May 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels, with only C-class activity observed. There are currently eight numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4425 (N05W68, Hsx/alpha) became a unipolar group following the decay of its trailing spots. Region 4428 (S23W72, Eao/beta) grew in area and length with new flux emergence and consolidation of its leading and trailing spot groups. Region 4429 (S05W27, Cai/beta) lost penumbra in its trailing spots while consolidation was observed in the leading spots. Region 4431 (S16E05, Eso/beta) declined in area with flux submergence in the intermediary and trailing portions. Region 4432 (N13E20, Csi/beta) grew as intermediary spots emerged. Region 4433 (S16E50, Dso/beta) showed minor cancellation in the middle and trailing areas. Regions 4434 (N12E43, Axx/alpha) and 4435 (N23E57, Hsx/alpha) remained stable unipolar spots. A slow-moving eruption, potentially associated with a C1.5 flare from Region 4425, was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 04/1200 UTC. Additionally, a filament eruption from near S26W73 was first observed in C2 imagery at 04/1424 UTC. Analysis of these events indicated that the ejecta should pass ahead of Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 07 May, with a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) primarily due to the flare potential of Region 4429. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 724 pfu observed at 04/1420 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 07 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, though there is a less than slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater radiation storm due to the potential for activity from Region 4424 as it moves just beyond the western limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters initially reflected the residual influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Solar wind speeds averaged around 400 km/s, while total magnetic field (Bt) held near 4 nT. Bt began a gradual rise to 7 nT by mid-period. A density enhancement began at approximately 04/1030 UTC, accompanied by two sharp rotations in the North-South (Bz) component. Sustained southward conditions accompanied the passage of an apparent transient, beginning at approximately 04/1450 UTC, with Bt increasing to a peak of 11 nT and the Bz component reaching a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT. Solar wind speeds at the close of the period remained slightly elevated between 400-450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative (towards the Sun) sector throughout the majority of the period. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain perturbed through midday on 05 May due to transient CME influences, and then be weakly enhanced through 06 May as negative polarity CH HSS influences continue to wane. Brief enhancements are possible due to additional glancing influences from another slow-moving CME that departed the Sun on 30 April. A solar sector boundary crossing is expected on 07 May preceding the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was initially quiet but reached G2 (Moderate) storming levels late in the period in response to apparent transient influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 05 May with isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming periods possible early as CME effects persist. Conditions are expected to subside to quiet to unsettled levels by 06 May as CME/-CH HSS influences wane, though isolated active periods remain possible due to potential glancing CME influences. Active conditions are anticipated on 07 May following the onset of the +CH HSS.