083
FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Oct 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 4545 (N20E33, Dao/beta)
grew slightly and became slightly more active, yet still only managed
B-level enhancements. Two new regions were numbered during the period:
Region 4547 (N15W20, Bxo/beta) and Region 4548 (S11E64, Hsx/alpha).
However, both were inactive. Region 4546 (S18W59, Cro/beta) gained a
single trailer spot, but was quiet during the period.

From approximately 02/1845 UTC to 03/0345 UTC, the NE half of an
approximately 20 degree long filament, centered near N22W43, was
observed lifting off the Sun and disappearing as it lifted. With no
indications of a CME in coronagraph imagery, it is believed that most of
the material was reabsorbed.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for
C-flares through 06 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 04-05 Oct, returning to high levels by 06 Oct. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 06 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment showed a minor enhancement after 03/0118 UTC.
Total magnetic field strength increased from ~4 nT to a peak of 9 nT and
the Bz component rotated as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds
increased from 271 km/s to ~300 km/s. Conditions returned to background
levels after 03/1300 UTC, with total field decreasing to 4 nT, Bz
turning positive, and wind speeds dropping back to near 270 km/s. Phi
angle remained oriented primarily in the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions from the influence of a CH HSS are
expected over 04-05, with conditions diminishing by 06 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Active levels are expected on 04 Oct, with G1 (Minor) storm levels
likely, following the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole
high-speed stream. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist
into 05-06 Oct as CH HSS influence continue, but wane.