Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
376 FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to low levels following a C6.0/1f flare that peaked at 10/1459 UTC from Region 4485 (S10W55, Dai/beta-gamma). An associated CME was first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 10/1512 UTC. Modelling and analysis of this event indicated the bulk of the material should pass ahead of Earth. This region continues to show new flux emergence, with notable development in its intermediate spot area. Aside from the C6 flare, only B-level enhancements were observed during the period. The remaining regions were stable or showing signs of decay. From around 10/1310-1445 UTC, an approximately seven degree long filament, centered near N05E65, was seen lifting off from the Sun in GONG H-Alpha imagery. Due to the location near the East limb, and its trajectory, no Earth-directed component is expected. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 13 Jul, mainly due to the complexity and flare potential of Region 4485. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels, with a peak flux of 2,028 pfu observed at 10/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 11-13 Jul under high-speed stream influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background levels through 13 July. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind speeds varied between ~535-680 km/s, total field strength was predominantly between 6 and 13 nT, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT. The phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector. .Forecast... Elevated but diminishing solar wind parameters are expected on 11 Jul as effects from the high-speed stream are anticipated to weaken throughout the day. Another enhancement is anticipated mid to late in the day on 12 Jul due to possible glancing influences from a CME that departed the Sun on 09 Jul. By 13 Jul, the elevated conditions are expected to begin tapering off, returning the environment back to near background levels. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period, under the weakening influence of the high-speed stream. .Forecast... Persistent -CH HSS influences are likely to keep the geomagnetic field under slightly elevated conditions, with mostly quiet to unsettled levels, and a chance for isolated active periods on 11 Jul. By around midday on 12 Jul, active conditions are anticipated, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming conditions likely, due to the possible glancing impacts of the 09 Jul CME, though confidence on timing and magnitude remains low. Conditions should begin to taper down by 13 Jul as the CME completes its transit past Earth, bringing levels down to mostly quiet for the remainder of the day.