Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
368 FXXX12 KWNP 010031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, but increased in overall activity. Region 4366 (N13E51, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) continued to grow in size and complexity, and was the main flare producer. It added multiple mid- and upper-level C-flares, including a C7.8 flare at 31/1920 UTC, the largest of the period. Regions 4357 (S14W60, Cao/beta) and 4363 (S26E45, Cao/beta) each added a couple of low-level C-flares early in the period but were later inactive. New Regions 4367 (N10E75, Hsx/alpha) and 4368 (S08E76, Hsx/alpha) were numbered as they rotated onto the visible disk from the East limb. All other regions were unchanged or continued to decay. A C6.0 flare originating from beyond the western limb occurred at 31/0512 UTC. A subsequent CME was then first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 31/0512 UTC. This event is not expected to have an Earth-directed component given its source location. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 03 Feb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 11,099 pfu observed at 31/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels, through 03 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect diminishing negative polarity CH HSS conditions. Total field averaged 3-4 nT, the Bz component was near neutral, and solar wind speed decreased from ~515 km/s to just around 390 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was in a negative orientation. .Forecast... Background conditions are expected to continue through 03 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail through 03 Feb as an ambient solar wind regime persists.