Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
791 FXXX12 KWNP 311231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 31 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 4349 (S14W79, Cso/beta) and 4357 (S14W53, Cro/beta) produced low level C-class flares with the latter exhibiting decay. Region 4366 (N13E58, Dai/beta-delta) was of note during the reporting period as it underwent evolution, gaining asymmetric penumbra and a delta signature in its intermediate spot group. AR 4366 produced C-class flares as well, the largest of which was a C6.2 flare at 31/1052 UTC. A C6.0 flare originating from beyond the western limb occurred at 31/0512 UTC. A subsequent CME was then first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 31/0512 UTC. This event is not expected to have an Earth-directed component given its source location. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 02 Feb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 9,213 pfu observed at 30/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 01 Feb, then decrease to low to moderate levels by 02 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through 02 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing negative polarity CH HSS conditions. Total field averaged 3-4 nT, the Bz component was near neutral, and solar wind speed decreased from ~550 km/s to just under 450 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation. .Forecast... An ambient-like solar wind regime is expected to continue through 02 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activty was was quiet levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail through 02 Feb under an ambient-like solar wind regime.