Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
132 FXXX12 KWNP 301231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 4564 (N04E65, Bxo/beta) developed trailer spots this period. A new region began rotating onto the disk; the region will be evaluated for numbering once it has rotated past the worst of the limb foreshortening effects. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed at the available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for isolated C-class flares through 01 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1,228 pfu observed at 29/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on 30 Oct Oct and remain there through 01 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to persist at background levels through 01 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected generally undisturbed conditions near Earth in the first half of the period, with the wind speeds less than 350 km/s, a total magnetic field (Bt) averaging 4 nT, and a largely neutral or north Bz (north-south) component. After approximately 30/0500 UTC, a magnetic structure began moving through: Bt reached a max of 9 nT at 30/0700 UTC while Bz reached a max southward deflection of -6 nT at 30/0615 UTC. Solar wind speeds had a very slight increase but remained below 350 km/s. The phi angle was largely negative (towards the Sun), except for a 5hr interval after 30/0500 UTC which crossed into the positive sector, potentially indicated a sector boundary crossing ahead of the anticipated CH HSS. .Forecast... Solar wind disturbances are likely to occur late on 30 Oct, continuing into 31 Oct - 01 Nov, due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, equatorial positive polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period. .Forecast... Unsettled to active geomagnetic levels are expected late on 30 Oct as the positive polarity CH HSS effects begin, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming becoming likely on 31 Oct and 01 Nov.