Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
515 FXXX12 KWNP 280031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decreased to low levels with only c-class flare activity. Region 4191 (N12W13, Ehi/beta) remained relatively stable and quiet. Region 4197 (S17E30, Eki/beta-gamma) underwent evolution as it gained additional spots with penumbra in its intermediate area. Region 4199 (N04E45, Cao/beta) was the culprit for the majority of the flare activity, producing a C9.4 flare at 27/1250 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 4200 (S08W14, Dai/beta) grew in overall length while gaining additional spots and 4201 (S21E44, Dsi/beta) developed mature penumbra on its trailing spot. Region 4204 (N03E57, Hrx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. USAF observatories reported a disappearing solar filament centered near N08W22 at approximately 27/1441 UTC. However, GOES SUVI 304 imagery seems to suggest that it was reabsorbed vs. an eruptive event. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels through 30 Aug due to M-class flare activity with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare event. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit decreased to normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to reach high levels with a peak flux of 13.9 pfu at 27/0740 UTC, but began a steady trend of decline thereafter. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 30 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue a slow, steady declining trend towards background levels over the course of 28 August with a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm event remaining through 30 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected mostly nominal levels. Total field ranged 2-8 nT. The Bz component was mostly benign with one southward deflection reaching -7 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from approximately 350 km/s to 400 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are possible through 29 Aug due to occasional influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are likely through 29 Aug with any weak, negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 30 Aug.