619
FXXX12 KWNP 050031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4424 (N17, L=197)
produced the largest event of the period, an M1.8 flare at 04/0133 UTC,
before rotating beyond the western limb. Besides this event, activity
consisted of frequent to occasional low-level C-class flaring, primarily
originating from Regions 4424 and 4429 (S05W20, Cai/beta).

There are currently eight numbered regions on the visible disk. Region
4425 (N05W61, Hsx/alpha) became a unipolar group following the decay of
its trailing spots. Region 4428 (S23W65, Eao/beta) grew in area and
length with new flux emergence and consolidation of its leading and
trailing spot groups. Region 4429 (S05W20, Cai/beta) lost penumbra in
its trailing spots while consolidation was observed in the leading
spots. Region 4431 (S16E12, Eso/beta) declined in area with flux
submergence in the intermediary and trailing portions. Region 4432
(N13E27, Csi/beta) grew as intermediary spots emerged. Region 4433
(S16E57, Dso/beta) showed minor cancellation in the middle and trailing
areas. Regions 4434 (N12E50, Axx/alpha) and 4435 (N23E64, Hsx/alpha)
remained stable unipolar spots.

A slow-moving eruption, potentially associated with a C1.5 flare from
Region 4425, was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 04/1200
UTC. Additionally, a filament eruption from near S26W73 was first
observed in C2 imagery at 04/1424 UTC. Analysis of these events
indicated that the ejecta should pass ahead of Earth. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 07 May, with a
chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) primarily due
to the flare potential of Region 4429.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 724 pfu observed at
04/1420 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels through 07 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels, though there is a less than
slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater radiation storm due to the
potential for activity from Region 4424 as it moves just beyond the
western limb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters initially reflected the residual influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds averaged around 400 km/s, while total magnetic field (Bt) held
near 4 nT. Bt began a gradual rise to 7 nT by mid-period. A density
enhancement began at approximately 04/1030 UTC, accompanied by two sharp
rotations in the North-South (Bz) component. Sustained southward
conditions accompanied the passage of an apparent transient, beginning
at approximately 04/1450 UTC, with Bt increasing to a peak of 11 nT and
the Bz component reaching a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT.
Solar wind speeds at the close of the period remained slightly elevated
between 400-450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative
(towards the Sun) sector throughout the majority of the period.


.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain perturbed through
midday on 05 May due to transient CME influences, and then be weakly
enhanced through 06 May as negative polarity CH HSS influences continue
to wane. Brief enhancements are possible due to additional glancing
influences from another slow-moving CME that departed the Sun on 30
April. A solar sector boundary crossing is expected on 07 May preceding
the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet but reached G2 (Moderate)
storming levels late in the period in response to apparent transient
influences.


.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 05 May with
isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming periods possible early as CME
effects persist. Conditions are expected to subside to quiet to
unsettled levels by 06 May as CME/-CH HSS influences wane, though
isolated active periods remain possible due to potential glancing CME
influences. Active conditions are anticipated on 07 May following the
onset of the +CH HSS.