Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
547 FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4560 (N13W28, Eai/beta-gamma) produced a C2.1 flare at 21/2252 UTC, which was the largest flare of the period. Region 4557 (N07W55, Dao/beta) continued a gradual state of decay, primarily in its intermediate and trailing spots and sparked a handful of B-level enhancements to the X-ray flux. Region 4560 continued to exhibit maturing penumbra on both its poles. Region 4551 (S16W85, Eko/beta-gamma) produced a C1.3 flare at 21/1058 UTC and was relatively stable as it transited the W limb. One CME of note was observed just after 21/0900 UTC. This event originated from dimming just southeastward of the northern negative polar CH cap, centered near N28E05, as observed in SUVI 195 imagery beginning at approximately 21/0830 UTC. Modeling of the resulting relatively slow ejecta suggests that a weak glancing blow to Earth is possible by 26 or 27 Oct. However, confidence is low in this outcome given the extended range of the forecast and that a bulk of the material should pass well behind Earths orbit. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 24 Oct, with a slight chance (15-20%) for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 22 Oct with a chance to reach high levels on 23-24 Oct due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with no S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms expected through 24 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field ranged 7-10 nT while the Bz component was mostly shifted southward, reaching -5 to -8 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked near 525 km/s before decreasing slightly to ~450 to ~460 km/s. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 22 Oct before beginning a waning trend towards a background-like environment on 23 Oct. A return to disturbed conditions is expected on 24 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS onset. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS activity. .Forecast... Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected early on 22 Oct followed by unsettled conditions due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are then expected on 23 Oct before giving way to unsettled to active conditions once again on 24 Oct as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.