Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
040 FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4345 (S17W56, Esi/beta) exhibited minor decay in its intermediate spots. Region 4351 (S04W21, Dai/beta) experienced decay in its intermediate spots as well while producing a C4.1 flare at 24/0831 UTC. Region 4353 (N18W16, Dai/beta) was of note as it underwent evolution, gaining additional asymmetric penumbra. Region 4355 (S14E44, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. New spots were noted near S11W04 and N09W09, but went unnumbered due to a lack of corroborating observatory reports. Multiple CMEs were observed after 23/1500 UTC. Analysis of these events determined the origin of each event to be either on the far side of the solar disk or on or just beyond the south eastern limb and thus not Earth-directed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with moderate (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate) levels likely and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 24-26 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,391 pfu observed at 23/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the S1 (Minor) threshold and still returning to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 24-26 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement is expected to continue to decline towards background levels over 24-26 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CH HSS regime. Total field was primarily 6-7 nT while the Bz component was +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from near 600 km/s to end the period near 550 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 24-25 Jan as CH HSS effects persist. A near ambient-like regime is expected to return for 26 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) levels on 24 Jan as HSS activity persists. Decreasing HSS influence over 25-26 Jan should bring geomagnetic activity down to quiet to unsettled levels over the course of those two days.