Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
622 FXXX12 KWNP 121231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4503 (S17W40, Cri/beta-gamma) developed rudimentary penumbra surrounding its leading spots and exhibited new flux emergence of mixed polarity in its intermediate area. Region 4506 (N12E13, Cri/beta) developed new spots, but was relatively quiet. Region 4507 (N04E30, Dao/beta) continued to undergo evolution as well, developing penumbra on both its leading and trailing spots and produced a C1.7 flare at 11/1807 UTC. Region 4508 (N06E56, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1.4 flare and a C1.7 flare at 11/2010 UTC and 12/0733 UTC, respectively. Field line movement and a weak dimming signature was noted in GOES-19 SUVI 195 imagery beginning at approximately 11/1944 UTC near N33W40. However, no discernible, convincing CME was observed in available coronagraph imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance (10%) for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares 12-14 Aug. Solar Orbiter PHI imagery indicates another region should rotate onto the visible disk behind and to the South in the coming day, but available imagery suggests it is not especially large or complex. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 14 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 12-14 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected CME passage. Total field decreased from peaks of 9-10 nT to a range of 3-5 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component underwent several southward deflections reaching - 8nT during the early portions of the period. Solar wind speeds underwent a gradual increase from approximately 400 km/s to just under 450 km/s. Phi was variable. .Forecast... CME-related enhancements are expected to persist through 12 Aug. Additional low-confidence enhancements are possible from a small positive polarity coronal hole on 12 Aug before parameters continue a downward trend on 13 Aug. Enhancements are expected to return under the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS) by mid to late on 14 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on 12 Aug before returning to quiet conditions on 13 Aug. Active conditions with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming or greater are likely on 14 Aug under +CH HSS influences.