Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
181 FXXX12 KWNP 250031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels, with only low-level C-class flares observed. The largest flares during the period was a C2.6 at 24/2105 UTC from Region 4494 (S04E27, Cao/beta-delta) and a C3.0 at 24/2203 UTC from Region 4493 (N05W46, Eki/beta-gamma). Region 4494 continued to exhibit slight growth and maintained a weak delta within its leader spots. Region 4493 exhibited some intermediate spot decay. Newly numbered AR 4496 (N05E59, Cso/beta) continued to show slight growth in it trailing spots as it rotated further into view. The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable and inactive. Earlier in the period, a C2.4 flare was observed at 24/0427 UTC resulting from a filament eruption near S20E20. An associated CME was observed off the SSE limb at ~24/0500 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Preliminary modelling shows a potential Earth-directed component with an arrival around late on 27 Jul to early on 28 Jul. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares on 25-27 due to the flare potential of Regions 4493 and 4494. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... There is a chance the greater than 2 MeV electron flux could reach high levels on 25-27 Jul with post high speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 27 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... A persistent, yet waning negative polarity CH HSS regime dominated the solar wind environment over the past 24 hours. Total field began the period around 8 nT and gradually declined to average near 5 nT. The Bz component underwent several southward deflections reaching -5 to -8 nT early in the period, but turned northward after 24/0300 UTC. Solar wind speeds decreased over the course of the period, from peaks near 750 km/s down to average just over 550 km/s. Phi angle was negative. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to trend towards mostly background levels on 25-26 Jul as -CH HSS influence subsides. On 27 Jul, enhancements in the solar wind parameters are likely with the anticipated arrival of the 24 Jul CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period early, due to persistent negative polarity CH HSS effects. .Forecast... Barring any unrealized CME impacts from the 20-21 Jul events, mostly quiet levels are expected on 25-26 Jul as negative polarity CH HSS effects diminish. On 27 Jul, an increase to unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, is expected with the anticipated arrival of the 24 Jul CME.