319
FXXX12 KWNP 030031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jan 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels due to few C-class flares, mostly
originated at Region 4333 (S11E03, Cro/beta-gamma). The largest flare
was a C6.5 at 02/0017 UTC from Region 4333. From Region 4317 (N11,
L=16), that is now located beyond the west limb, a C5.5 flare occurred
at 02/0255 UTC and was associated with a Type-II radio sweep (estimated
velocity of 314 km/s). A new region rotated on to the visible solar disk
and was numbered during the day: Region 4334 (S15E73, Hsx/alpha).

No Earth-direct CME was observed at available coronagraph imagery during
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for isolated X-class
flares (R3-Strong) on 03-05 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
4,196 pfu at 02/1610 UTC before decreasing to moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to high
levels 03-05 Jan. Currently, there is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton flux crossing the threshold of 10 pfu through 05 Jan.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were disturbed during the day, likely reflecting
the increasing influence of the negative polarity CH HSS, and
potentially indicating the onset of the anticipated impact of CMEs that
left the Sun between 28-31 Dec. Solar Wind speeds raised from 500 km/s
level earlier in the day up to 600 km/s levels. The total magnetic field
strength (Bt) ranged from 5-10 nT with the north-south component
reaching as far south as -8 nT later in the day. The phi angle remained
mostly in the negative sector, suggesting that the Earth is under the
influence of the negative CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be increasingly disturbed on 03
Jan due to a combination of the ongoing influences of the negative CH
HSS and the arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 31 Dec. Additional
disturbances are likely on 04 Jan with the anticipated impact of the CME
that left the Sun on 01 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to minor storming (G1-minor)
levels during the period, reflecting the increased influence of the
negative polarity CH HSS and, potentially, the early disturbances caused
by the periphery of CMEs that left the Sun between 28-31 Dec.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G2 (Moderate)
storming levels on 03 Jan due to the combination of the ongoing HSS
activity and the peak impact of the 31 Dec CME. Quiet to G1 (Minor)
storming levels are likely on 04 Jan due to the anticipated arrival of
the 02 Jan CME. On 05 Jan, the geomagnetic activity levels are expected
to return to quiet to unsettled levels.