Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
883 FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels, with only C-class flare activity observed, the largest of which was a C8.9 at 13/2150 UTC from Region 4141 (S13W84, Cro/beta). New NOAA/SWPC Region 4142 (N02E56, Cso/beta) was assigned to an emerged spot group that produced several C-class and optical subflares. The remaining six designated spot groups changed little during the period, with the exception of some minor growth in Region 4138 (N28W45, Dsi/beta). A Type II radio sweep was detected by the USAF/USSF RSTN network (estimated velocity 205 km/s), but as of this report, no clear source of this activity was determined. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate 14-16 Jul, with an isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) probable due primarily to flare probabilities from Regions 4141 and 4142. Region 4141 rotates beyond the west limb by 15 Jul, but most of the remaining seven spot groups remain capable of producing an isolated M-class flare. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was low to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate over 14-16 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 16 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was primarily 6-7 nT and the Bz component was variable, with a maximum south deflection of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from peak speed near 650 km/s to end of period measurements that approached 500 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Elevated and mildly disturbed solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 14-16 Jul due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels early in the reporting period, but was mainly unsettled afterwards in response to CH HSS effects. .Forecast... Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to persist over 14-16 Jul. The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels later on 14 Jul in response to the mildly enhanced and disturbed solar wind field. Quiet to unsettled conditions and a chance for active periods is anticipated for 15-16 Jul as CH HSS influences continue.