Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
581 FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to low levels this period. Region 4503 (S17W60, Cao/beta) produced a long duration C4.1/Sf at 14/0701 UTC. Associated with this flare was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 671 km/s. The largest region on the disk, Region 4507 (N04E07, Dsi/beta-gamma) produced a pair of B9.2 events at 13/1835 UTC and 14/0552 UTC. This region continued to show some weak development in the leader portion of the group. Region 4508 (N11E34, Cao/beta) produced an impulsive C1.5 flare at 14/0953 UTC. Region 4506 (N11W10, Bxo/beta) produced an impulsive C1.1/Sf flare at 14/1142 UTC. The remaining active regions were either largely stable or in decay. At about 14/0332 UTC, a 25 degree long U-shaped filament centered near S16E22, lifted off the disk. Surge material was observed moving in a westward direction across the disk. However, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (15%) for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 16 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to moderate levels 14-16 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 16 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient-like environment. Total field was at 3-8 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decayed from about 400 km/s to near 350 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive solar sector. .Forecast... Early on 14 Aug, enhancements are anticipated with the arrival of a corotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a +CH HSS. Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to then persist through 16 Aug under +CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled conditions. .Forecast... On 14-15 Aug, unsettled to active levels are expected in response to +CH HSS influences with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming or greater. 16 Aug is anticipated to return to mostly unsettled levels as CH HSS influences wane.