Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
620 FXXX12 KWNP 221231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at moderate levels with Region 4493 (N06W13, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) responsible for an M1.9 flare at 21/1727 UTC and an M3.6 flare at 22/0635 UTC. Associated with the M3 flare was a 200 sfu ten cm radio burst. Region 4493 continued to show growth and consolidation while maintaining several delta magnetic configurations within its intermediate and trailing spots. Region 4492 (N16E39, Hhx/alpha) exhibited possible umbral separation. Region 4494 (S04E61, Cso/beta) showed slight growth while Region 4489 (S07W47, Hsx/alpha) was in decay. Other activity included a filament eruption NW of Region 4493 at 21/1045 UTC. A faint CME was observed off the NW limb at 21/1412 UTC. Modelling is underway to determine if there is an Earth-directed component. .Forecast... Additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2 radio blackouts) is likely through 24 July primarily due to the flare potential currently exhibited by AR 4493. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 23 Jul with a chance for high levels returning on 24 Jul with post high speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 24 Jul with a 5% chance for an S1 or greater event primarily due to the event potential of AR 4493. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced with total field reaching 17 nT at 21/1247 UTC before decreasing to 5 nT by 21/2331 UTC. Another gradual increase was observed thereafter to near 12 nT. The Bz component varied between +9/-12 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 355 km/s to near 475 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Although solar wind speeds are not trending with recurrent patterns, speeds reaching 600-700 km/s are still likely beginning later on 22 Jul. HSS conditions are expected to continue through 23 Jul before gradually diminishing over the course of 24 Jul. There is a chance for additional enhancements by late on 23 Jul due to glancing CME effects from events that left the Sun on 20 Jul. However, these outcomes are lower confidence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely late on 22 Jul due to CH HSS effects. A chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic will persist through 24 Jul if the aforementioned CMEs from 20 Jul are indeed more Earth-directed than modeling suggests. Otherwise, quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected through 24 Jul as CH HSS effects gradually wane.