333
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4508 (N08E15, Cso/beta)
produced a C3.3/1n flare at 15/0818 UTC, the strongest of the period.
Regions 4507 (N04W15, Dai/beta), 4506 (N11W31, Dri/beta), and newly
numbered 4512 (S19W15, Dro/beta) all exhibited growth in the past 24
hours. The remaining numbered active regions were either mostly stable
or in gradual decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (15%) for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 18 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to
moderate levels 16-18 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 18 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total
magnetic field strength at under 5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained low,
with speeds observed between ~340-380 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters from a CME that left the Sun over
14 Aug are likely over 17-18 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be at mostly quiet levels on 16 Aug.
On Aug 17-18, an increase to active levels, with a chance for G1
(Minor), is anticipated with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on
14 Aug.