Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
207 FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4105 (S15W71, Eki/beta) produced an M6.8/1n flare at 14/2301 UTC, and an M1.0/Sf flare at 14/1804 UTC. Moderate growth occurred in Region 4114 (N17E26, Dki/beta-gamma) while Region 4105 had new flux emergence north of its leader spots. Slight growth and flux emergence also occurred in Region 4110 (N06W58, Eai/beta). Slight growth and development occurred in Region 4116 (S12E26, Dao/beta). A narrow CME was observed off the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 14/0312 UTC that was associated with C2.8 flare at 14/0307 UTC from Region 4105. Modelling of the event indicated no Earth-directed component. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) through 17 Jun. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15-17 Jun. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) through 17 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a transition to a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 430 km/s to between 480-535 km/s. Total field decreased from 17 nT to near 7 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... HSS conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period (15-17 Jun) with variations in solar wind speed. An increase in speed is possible later on 16 June when there is a better connection with the HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming due to a combination of CME/CH HSS effects. .Forecast... HSS activity is expected to cause unsettled to active periods on 15-17 Jun. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm periods are likely on 15-16 Jun.