Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
773 FXXX12 KWNP 280031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels following an impulsive M1.0/Sf flare at 27/0243 UTC from Region 4494 (S04W14, Hsx/alpha), with an associated Type-II radio sweep with an estimate speed of 622 km/s. No correspondent feature was identified in the coronagraph available images. Region 4498 (N14E76, Hax/alpha) rotated into the East limb during the period, and became the sixth active region in the visible solar disk. A CME associated with an M3.2 flare occurred on 26/1529 UTC, also from Region 4494, continued to be analyzed as coronagraph imagery database was back-filled. Preliminary modelling indicated possible arrival late on 30 Jul early on 31 July. A filament eruption was observed on SUVI (EUV) and GONG (H-alpha) imagery near Region 4492 (N16W35, Cso/beta-gamma-delta) around 27/0515 UTC, and associated CME was identified in the solar corona. Analysis of its propagation path are currently ongoing. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 30 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,379 pfu at 27/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to return to moderate levels on 28-30 Jul and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 30 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels most of the period, with solar wind weak transient arriving near 27/1500 UTC and elevating the speed from 350 km/s to 450 km/s levels. That might be associated with the anticipated arrival of the CME from 24 Jul. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was also enhanced (from about 4 nT up to 8 nT) by the transient, while the Bz component showed a seesaw pattern between +/- 5nT after that. Phi angle remained predominantly negative. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is likely to remain slightly disturbed on 28 Jul by the ongoing influences of a CME from 24 Jul. Waning disturbances are expected on 29-30 Jul as CME effects subside. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels during the period. .Forecast... Unsettle to active geomagnetic activity conditions are expected on 28 Jul due to the ongoing CME influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on 29-30 Jul as CME effects diminish.