Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
754 FXXX12 KWNP 131231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 4507 (N04E15, Dso/beta) formed new spots in its intermediate area and Region 4509 (N12W61, Dai/beta) developed asymmetric surrounding its leading spot. New spots formed ahead of AR 4506 and were subsequently numbered as Region 4510 (N12W15, Bxo/beta). The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (10%) for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 15 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to moderate levels through 14 Aug before increasing to high levels on 15 Aug under positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS) influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 13-15 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient-like environment. Total field was generally below 5 nT and the Bz component was near neutral. Solar wind speeds decreased to under 400 km/s by the end of the period and phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector. .Forecast... By late on 13 Aug or early on 14 Aug, enhancements are anticipated with the arrival of a corotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a +CH HSS. Enhanced solar wind conditions will then persist through 15 Aug under +CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was quiet. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet through 13 Aug. On 14-15 Aug, unsettled to active levels are expected in response to +CH HSS influences with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming or greater.