Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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755
FXXX12 KWNP 121231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Oct 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with three C-class flares, being the
strongest a C2.7 at 11/1915 UTC from Region 4247 (S12W45, Dai/beta), and
the remaining from Region 4246 (N24W09, Dai/beta-gamma). Two new Regions
were identified at the Eastern Hemisphere: 4251 (N19E47, Axx/alpha) and
4252 (S13E73, Hsx/alpha).

A CME lifted off from behind the South limb around 12/0730 UTC,
appearing at SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 12/0800 UTC. The event
was not modeled since it does not include an Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Considering that none of the six Regions currently at the solar disk
will rotate out in the next three days (12-14 Oct), a slight chance for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events continues to exist.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at high levels with a
maximum flux of 2,780 pfu at 11/1420 UTC. Normal-moderate levels
returned after 11/2135 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the remainder of 12 Oct and return to high levels on
13-14 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels over 12-14 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be driven by a negative polarity CH
HSS located at the NW quadrant of the solar disk. Solar wind speeds
increased from about 400 km/s up to 750 km/s. The total Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) oscillated between 10-17 nT, with its North-South
component Bz mostly positive during the period. Phi angle was
predominately negative throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels over
12-14 Oct due to persistent effects from the negative polarity CH/HSS.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the last 24 hrs.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active to G1 (Minor) storm
levels over 12-13 Oct due to the persistent influence of the negative
polarity CH/HSS. Unsettled conditions are likely on 14 Oct as influence
from the CH/HSS wanes.