459
FXXX12 KWNP 021231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Nov 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels. Region 4564 (N04E24, Cro/beta)
produced a C1.1 flare at 01/1236 UTC and exhibited minor decay. Region
4565 (N13E42, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet throughout the period. New
Region 4566 (S08E75, Cao/beta) was numbered as it rotated into view from
the SE limb, but the region remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares over 02-04 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 5,350 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
02-04 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels through 04 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Total field strength reached 6 nT and the Bz component
reached as far south as -4 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from a
peak of around 500 km/s early in the period to between 400-450 km/s.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain mildly enhanced on 02
Nov as positive polarity CH HSS influences diminish. Background solar
wind conditions are expected to prevail over 03-04 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to waning
positive polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
03 Nov due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected to prevail on 03-04 Nov.