Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
606 FXXX12 KWNP 010031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels with weak C-class flare activity. Region 4446 (S15W35, Cho/beta) continued to undergo decay while producing low level C-class flare activity. Region 4447 (S17W69, Hsx/alpha) produced a C3.1 flare at 31/0209 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 4455 (N15E24, Cko/beta) exhibited decay while its large leading penumbra began to take on an asymmetric shape. Region 4456 (N14, L = 65) decayed to plage. Two CMEs of note were observed during the period. The first was seen emerging from the southwest in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at approximately 31/1330 UTC. Analysis of GOES SUVI imagery determined the bulk of the material associated with this event to have originated from beyond the western limb and thus is not Earth-directed. However, it should be noted that relatively narrow, jet-like ejecta from the vicinity of AR 4446 and AR 4449 was observed in GOES SUVI 304 imagery as well just before the larger far side eruption and could have been faint enough to have been masked. The second CME of note was observed emerging from the southwest as well in GOES CCOR-1 imagery near 31/1715 UTC. SUVI 304 angstroms indicated a likely source location of AR 4447. There is currently a gap in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery that would be needed to perform modeling of this event as of the time of this writing, but an Earth-directed component can reasonably be ruled out based upon source location alone. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 02 Jun with a chance for isolated M-class flare activity. M-class flare probabilities decrease to a slight chance (20%) on 03 Jun as multiple regions exit the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach moderate levels through 03 Jun with a chance for high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 02 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field primarily ranged 3-7 nT. The Bz component of the IMF began the period with brief deflections reaching -5 nT, but then remained northward of near neutral for the remaining. Solar wind speeds oscillated between roughly 450 km/s to 550 km/s. .Forecast... Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue through 01 Jun with possible glancing influences from the slow eruptions that departed the Sun on 27 and 28 May. Ambient-like conditions are expected to return by the close of 02 Jun. Enhanced conditions are anticipated to return on 03 Jun first due to a solar sector boundary crossing followed by weak and likely glancing CME influences from an eruption that left the Sun on 30 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field began the period reaching unsettled to active levels before settling to largely quiet conditions. .Forecast... Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 01 Jun under continued negative polarity CH HSS effects and any glancing influences from the 27 and 28 May CMEs. Mostly quiet conditions, with isolated unsettled periods, are expected to prevail on 02 Jun as CH HSS effects wane come to a close. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming periods, are expected to return on 03 Jun due to combined solar sector boundary crossing and relatively weak, glancing CME effects from the aforementioned 30 May event.