Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
727 FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels with an X4.0/3B flare that peaked at 14/0830 UTC from Region 4274 (N24W78, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Accompanying this flare were Type II (est 1525 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 10.7 cm Tenflare burst of 1100 sfu. An associated CME is first visible in LASCO C2 imagery off the W limb starting at ~14/0800 UTC. Analysis and modeling of this event indicated that the main body of the ejecta (driver) should be well ahead of the Earth. However, modeling of the halo portion (shock) indicates a possible impact at Earth late on 15 Nov to early 16 Nov. However, confidence is low that any impacts from the shock will produce event level storming. More discussion will take place to determine future watches or warnings. Other flare activity included a pair of M1.3 flares; the first at 14/2012 UTC and the second at 14/2131 UTC, both also from Region 4274. The only other region to contribute to the flare activity was Region 4281 (S14, L=233) that produced a C4.7 flare at 14/2059 UTC as it made its way off the western limb. Additionally, an approximately 20 degree-long filament, centered near N30W38, was observed lifting off the disk in GONG H-alpha imagery from ~14/1800-1930 UTC. Any CMEs associated with the M-flares or filament eruption will be analyzed as imagery becomes available. Slight decay was observed in the intermediate and trailing spots of AR 4274 with some growth in its leader spots. However, foreshortening is beginning to make accurate classification and spot identification difficult. Regions 4276 (S17W45, Cao/beta), 4277 (S07W45, Cao/beta), and 4280 (S08E07, Cao/beta) all exhibited decay during the period and were inactive. The remaining regions were stable and mostly unchanged. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) decreasing yet still likely. There is also still a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity on 15-16 Nov, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux were at moderate levels with a peak flux of 534 pfu at 14/1215 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV protons reached S1 levels at 14/0920 UTC, peaked at 14/0950 UTC with a maximum of 16.5 pfu and ended at 14/1325 UTC. This short increase was related to the aforementioned X4.0 flare. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 15-17 Nov. There is a chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could see additional S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 15-16 Nov while Region 4274 continues to transit the W limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected decreasing CME influence from the 11 Nov event. Solar wind speed steadily decreased from initial speeds around 650 km/s to end the period near 550 km/s. Total field averaged near 6 nT, while the Bz component remained mostly north. Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced but waning through 15 Nov as CME influences diminish. Speeds in the 500-600 km/s range are likely through 15 Nov. By mid to late on 16 Nov, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), preceding a negative polarity CH HSS, will likely become geoeffective causing another enhancement in the solar wind from 16-17 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... As solar wind speeds remain elevated yet waning, there is still a decreasing chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 15 Nov. However, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for most of 15 Nov, continuing through late on 16 Nov until the anticipated arrival of a CIR/CH HSS later in the UTC day. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 16-17 Nov.