Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
637 FXXX12 KWNP 011231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. The majority of the C-class activity was associated with Regions at or just beyond the NE limb. The largest flare was a long duration C7.1 at 31/2043 UTC. Region 4271 (S09E33) decayed to plage and produced a C2.3/Sf at 31/2326 UTC. New spots were observed on the NE limb near N22 and will be numbered as they come into view. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 01-03 Nov and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 02-03 Nov due to the return of old Regions 4246 (N24, L=290) and 4248 (N07, L=262). Last rotation, Region 4246 produced 90 C-class flares and 27 M-class flares. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels around 31/1250 UTC, peaking at 31/1850 UTC, with a maximum flux of 4,770 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels, with a slight enhancement associated with a far-sided CME erupted from the NE limb around 31/1430 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels 03 Nov due to ongoing HSS influence. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 02-03 Nov due to returning active regions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 675 km/s to near 500 km/s. Total field was fairly steady at 6-7 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters near-Earth are expected to continue to be under the influence of positive CH/HSS through 03 Nov. Weak enhancements from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Oct are possible on 02 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to persistent CH HSS effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through 03 Nov as HSS activity persists combined with a possible glancing blow from the 30 Oct CME.