Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
353 FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Frequent C-class and three separate M-class flares were observed during the period. The largest event was an M3.3 flare at 02/1642 UTC from Region 4455 (N13W05, Cko/beta). Activity was primarily driven by Region 4455 and newly numbered Region 4461 (S20E72, Dao/beta). There are nine numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4455 remains complex, displaying an anti-Hale configuration caused by a series of small negative polarity spots developing south and west of its mature positive spot. Additionally, several small positive polarity spots emerged north of Region 4455 and moved steadily northward. Region 4457 (S08W40, Bxo/beta) broke its decaying trend, showing a surge of new flux emergence. Region 4458 (S04E07, Dsi/beta) also showed new emergence with hear as its polarities consolidated. Region 4459 (N14E21, Cso/beta) displayed steady consolidation. Region 4460 (N22W59, Dro/beta) was numbered this period and showed quick development on the disk. Region 4461 and Region 4462 (N17E75, Dao/beta) were also numbered this period after rotating onto the east limb, though severe foreshortening effects prevent a high-confidence analysis of their complexity and full physical extent. The remaining regions were stable or in decay. Several eruptions were seen in available imagery. Two narrow C-class associated eruptions from Region 4455 were observed in LASCO C2 data at 0312 UTC and 0724 UTC respectively. These eruptions were deflected northward, likely away from an adjacent negative polarity coronal hole, placing them well north of the ecliptic plane with no factor to Earth. At 0900 UTC, a large filament was observed erupting from approximately S07E65 in GOES SUVI imagery. Modeling confirms no Earth-directed component. The M3.3 flare from Region 4455 produced wideband frequency radio emissions, including a 10cm radio burst peaking at 150 pfu and a Type II radio burst with an estimated shock velocity of 631 km/s. This activity coincided with a large far-sided eruption that produced a CME visible in LASCO C2 at 1700 UTC and CCOR1 at 1745 UTC off to the northeast. Localized coronal dimming seen in SUVI 195 near Region 4455 suggests a front-side eruption occurred with the flare, although a definitive CME signature is not clear in near-Earth coronagraph data. It remains possible that the Type II radio signature was instead associated with the simultaneous far-sided eruption. Analysis of this event is ongoing. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 05 June with a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) primarily due to Regions 4455, 4458, 4461, and 4462. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels with a peak flux of 684 pfu observed at 02/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 05 June. Barring any major eruptive activity, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to continue at background levels through 05 June. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect slightly elevated background conditions under the residual influences of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 6 nT. The North-South (Bz) component was variable, spending significant periods deflected southward and reached a maximum deflection of -7 nT later in the period. Solar wind speeds varied slightly but held steady around 400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative (towards the Sun) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are anticipated to continue a general decline back toward a nominal background regime through the beginning of 03 June. Minor enhancements remain possible early to midday on 03 June due to low-confidence glancing influences from the slow 30 May CME. Late on 03 June or early on 04 June, more significant enhancements are expected with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Elevated conditions driven by the +CH HSS are expected to persist through 05 June. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a small chance for isolated active levels, due to on 03 June due to low confidence 30 May CME influences and anticipated CIR effects. Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, are anticipated on 04-05 June due to +CH HSS influences. A chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming 4-5 June is further heightened by the possibility of a transient arrival associated with the M3.3 flare, whose signature may have been obscured in available imagery.