Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
509 FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very low levels with only minor B-level enhancements observed. Newly developed Region 4546 (S19W45, Cso/beta) was numbered during the period, and was the only region to exhibit growth. The remaining regions were either unchanged or observed slight decay and remained quiescent. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-flares through 05 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, with a peak of 934 pfu at 02/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 03-05 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 05 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of ambient background conditions. Total magnetic field strength averaged near 5 nT, the Bz component observed no significant southward deviations, solar winds averaged near 300 km/s, and the Phi angle remained predominately in a positive orientation. .Forecast... Ambient solar wind conditions are expected early on 03 Oct. By mid to late in the day, solar wind enhancements are likely as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective location. Enhanced conditions are likely to continue though 04-05 Oct as CH HSS influence endures. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Quiet geomagnetic field conditions prevailed throughout the period. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to give way to unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming late on 03 Oct, following the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are then likely on 04 Oct as the CH settles into a geoeffective position. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist into 05 Oct as CH HSS influence persists, but diminishes.