Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
848 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4105 (S15W59, Eki/beta) produced an impulsive M1.2/1f flare at 13/2110 UTC; the strongest event of the period. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4110 (N05W44, Dai/beta-gamma) and 4114 (N18E39, Dai/beta). Slight decay and consolidation was observed in Region 4105, and the remaining regions were mostly stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 16 Jun. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with an isolated measurement above high levels. The peak was 1,230 pfu observed at 13/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 14-16 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 16 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent CME effects. Total field ranged from 4-18 nT and the Bz component was negative throughout the period, reaching a maximum of -16 nT. Solar wind speed was in the 373-471 km/s range. Phi angle was mostly negative. .Forecast... CME effects are expected to persist through midday on 14 Jun followed by a transition into a positive polarity CH HSS by late on 14 Jun to early on 15 Jun. HSS conditions are expected to persist through 16 Jun. Solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s are possible based on recurrence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due to persistent CME effects. .Forecast... Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are expected, with a chance for G3 (Strong) levels, on 14 Jun as CME effects persist through midday on 14 Jun, followed by a transition into a positive polarity CH HSS. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 15-16 Jun as CH HSS influences persist.