Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
424 FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flares were observed from Regions 4493 (N05W39, Eki/beta-gamma) and 4494 (S04E34, Cao/beta-delta). The largest flare was a C2.8 at 23/1512 UTC resulting from a filament eruption near S20E20. Slight decay was observed in the intermediate spots of AR 4493 and appeared to be simplifying magnetically. AR 4494 exhibited slight growth and formed a delta within its leader spots. Newly numbered AR 4496 (N05E66, Cso/beta) showed emergence of trailing spots. The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable. Other activity included a filament eruption center near S20E10 at 24/0432 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the SSE limb at 24/0500 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Preliminary modelling shows a potential Earth-directed component with an arrival around midday on 28 Jul. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a high chance for M-class flares (45%) on 24-26 due to the flare potential of Regions 4493 and 4494. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 24 Jul with a chance for high levels returning on 25-26 Jul with post high speed stream and possible CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 26 Jul with a 5% chance for an S1 or greater event primarily due to the event potential of AR 4493. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced under negative polarity CH HSS conditions. Total field reached peaks of 10-11 nT while the Bz component remained disturbed, undergoing several southward deflections reaching -5 to -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased over the course of the period, reaching peaks near 750 km/s before gradually decreasing to near 600 km/s. Total field decreased as well to near 5 nT. Phi angle was predominately negative. .Forecast... The current regime is expected to largely continue through 25 Jul. Additional enhancements are possible by on 24 Jul due to possible CME arrival from events that left the Sun on 20 and 21 Jul. However, this outcome is low confidence as modeling efforts predict the bulk of the material to be northward of Earths orbit. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Jul under sustained negative polarity CH HSS effects and any glancing influences from the aforementioned CME events from 20 and 21 Jul. Again, modeling suggests that a bulk of the material from this event should pass north of Earth, but higher levels of geomagnetic storming (25% for G2 or greater) cannot be ruled out if this event is indeed more Earth-directed than predicted. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 25 Jul followed by mostly quiet conditions on 26 Jul as conditions wane.