Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
247 FXXX12 KWNP 291231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 29 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Five M-class (R1-Minor) flares were observed from two Regions. Region 4197 (S18E10, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced a single M1 flare early in the period as the region decreased in size but developed additional intermediate spots. Region 4203 (N11, L=233) produced four M1 flares as the region rotated out of view on the W limb. New Regions 4205 (N18E60, Hax/alpha) and 4206 (N09E63, Hax/alpha) were numbered this period, and the remainder of the active regions were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) is expected, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater), on 29-31 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued a slow decline throughout the period, with a peak flux of 5.4 pfu observed at 28/1230 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 31 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue decreasing towards background levels over 29-31 Aug. There remains a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 31 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 7 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady, averaging ~400 km/s during the period. .Forecast... Mostly nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 30 Aug. A slight enhancement is likely on 31 Aug due to the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Quiet conditions are expected to prevail through 30 Aug. On 31 Aug, quiet to unsettled conditions are likely due to the onset of negative CH HSS influences.