Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
468 FXXX12 KWNP 271231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels following an impulsive M3.2 (R1-Minor) flare from Region 4494 (S04W07, Csi/beta) at 26/1528 UTC and an M1.0/Sf flare at 27/0243 UTC. Both flares had an associated Type II radio sweep with a speed of 1057 km/s and 622 km/s, respectively. STEREO A COR2 imagery showed a few images of the CME beginning at 26/1608 UTC associated with the M3.2 flare. Preliminary modelling indicated possible arrival late on 30 Jul. Modelling for a potential CME associated with the M1.0 flare will be conducted as imagery becomes available. Regions 4493 (N05W79, Dso/beta), 4494, and 4495 (S02W18, Cao/beta) continued to decay over the period with Region 4494 losing its delta magnetic configuration. The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable or in decay. Other activity included an approximate 14 degree filament eruption centered near N25E08 at 27/0220 UTC. Analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 29 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,160 pfu at 26/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 27 Jul as CH HSS effects diminish. Moderate are then levels likely on 28-29 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 29 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters declined to nominal levels with solar wind speed decreasing from approximately 550 km/s to near 380 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-4 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to be near background levels through most of 27 Jul. Enhancements are likely late in the period with the anticipated weak, flanking influences of a CME from 24 Jul. Enhanced parameters are likely to persist through 28 Jul, then taper off on 29 Jul as CME effects subside. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected the first half of 27 Jul. Weak CME influences late on 27 Jul should bring unsettled to active conditions likely lasting into 28 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return by 29 Jul as CME effects diminish.