431
FXXX12 KWNP 300031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Active Region 4535 (N11W46,
Cso/beta-gamma) was the most complex AR but lacked significant activity.
New Region 4544 (S08W11, Cso/beta) was numbered and was inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels with a slight chance
for an M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 02 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of
5,622 pfu at 29/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels through 01 Oct. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 02
Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels through 02 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters showed ambient-like solar wind conditions with a
slight decrease of the speeds: from about 350 km/s to 300 km/s levels.
Total magnetic field strength was less than 5 nT throughout the
reporting period, and the Bz component varied between +/- 2 nT. The
phi angle remained predominantly positive during the past 24h.

.Forecast...
Undisturbed solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 29 Sep -
01 Oct. An enhanced solar wind is likely on 02 Oct due to flanking
influences from a CME that left the Sun on 28 Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 29 Sep - 01
Oct. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 02 Oct due to
influences from the 28 Sep CME.