403
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Feb 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased slightly to low levels following a C1.2 flare
at 22/0037 UTC and a subsequent C2.2 flare at 22/0633 UTC, both from
near Region 4374 (N10, L=065) as it completed its transit beyond the
west limb. A B7.7 flare was also observed at 22/0111 UTC from an area of
plage near N13E40. Aside from this minor activity, the visible disk was
spotless and relatively inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected
in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares on 22-24 Feb, and a slight chance for isolated M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 23-24 Feb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach moderate to high
levels on 22-24 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels through 24 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected enhanced conditions following the
likely passing of a suspected embedded transient, combined with onset of
a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field
strength reached 16 nT, the Bz component ranged between +10/-13 nT, and
solar wind speeds increased from around 460 km/s to a peak near 650
km/s. The phi angle was in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to prevail over 22-24 Feb due
to persistent CIR/negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storming levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1/G2 (Minor/Moderate) storm
levels on 22 Feb, followed by likely G1 storming conditions on 23 Feb,
due to CIR effects and negative polarity CH HSS influences.