Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
127 FXXX12 KWNP 271231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 4560 (N13, L=048) and 4561 (S09W83, Dro/beta) produced low level C-class flare activity. The largest flare was a long duration C2.8 AT 26/1840 UTC from Region 4561. This region also produced two CMEs, but neither are considered Earth-directed considering their origin. Region 4562 (S16E42, Axx/alpha) remained stable and relatively quiet. Other activity included a filament eruption centered near N30E75 that lifted off at approximately 26/2142 UTC. Preliminary analysis showed the potential for glancing effects arriving early on 31 Oct. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely remain at low levels with C-class flares and slight chance for isolated M-class flare activity through 27 Oct as AR 4561 rotates beyond the western limb. A chance for isolated C-class flare activity will remain thereafter and through 29 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 2,915 pfu observed at 26/1345 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on 27 Oct before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 28-29 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to persist at background levels through 29 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected transient-like enhancements. Total field became elevated at 6 to 10 nT beginning at approximately 26/0535 UTC. The Bz component was between +8/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds overall underwent a decrease from ~360 km/s to ~320 km/s before increasing once again to ~420 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly positive until 26/1620 UTC when it switched to a mostly negative sector. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind parameters are likely to persist over the course of 27 Oct, but ambient-like conditions are expected to prevail on 28-29 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... A chance for isolated unsettled periods will linger on 27 Oct. Mostly quiet conditions are then expected on 28-29 Oct.