Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
480 FXXX12 KWNP 251231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 25 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with only a few low-level C-class flares. Five designated sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk. Region 4489 (S08W86; Hsx/alpha) rotated to the limb. Region 4493 (N05W52; Ehi/beta-gamma) underwent decay in trailer group, but continued to produce infrequent C-class flare activity. Region 4492 (N16W01; Hhx/alpha) also underwent some decay and was inactive. Region 4494 (S04E18; Dai/beta-delta) experienced minor changes and retained its mixed polarity lead spot. Region 4496 (N05E52; Dao/beta) experienced some growth and had frequent brightenings in GOES-19 SUVI imagery, but no notable flare activity. Region 4495 (S02W00) decayed to plage. A possible new spot developed at approximately N04E62, but awaiting coorborating SOON observatory reports and duration requirements before assigning a new designation. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) solar flares the remainder of 25 Jul through 27 Jul due primarily to the flare probability of RGNs 4493, 4494, and slightly increased flare potential from RGN 4496. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values. .Forecast... There is a chance that the 2 MeV electron flux could reach high levels on 25-26 Jul due to CH HSS effects, with a return to moderate levels likely by 27 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were indicative of slowly weaking CH HSS influences. The total IMF strength was primarily 5 nT and the Bz component was predominantly northward directed. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 625 km/s to 525 km/s. The phi angle was mainly in a negative sector. .Forecast... CH HSS influences are expected to continue weakening the remainder of 25 Jul, with a return to mainly an ambient background state on 26 Jul. The proximity passage or weak flanking influences of a CME from 24 Jul is likely to mildly disturb and enhance the solar wind field late on 27 Jul. However, confidence in any CME disturbances is low. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet under waning CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Mainly quiet conditions are anticipated the remainder of 25 Jul and through 26 Jul. Weak CME influences are possible by 27 Jul that are likely to result in active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels.