Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
409 FXXX12 KWNP 170031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at low levels with only C-class flares observed. The largest flare was a C5.0 at 16/0358 UTC from Region 4143 (N23W12, Dai/beta-gamma) which continues to show flux emergence in its intermediate area. The region continues to evolve into a circular pattern and has been responsible for most of the activity. The other region of higher activity was Region 4142 which has been experiencing similar evolution as 4143. Region 4139 (N22W42, Dko/beta-gamma) has become stable in its growth over the last couple of hours with increasing size in its leader and trailer from consolidation of intermediate spots. All other regions have been either stable or in decay. There have been no Earth-directed CMEs observed in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate levels likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 19 Jul due to the flare potential of Regions 4139, 4142, and 4143. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Continued influence from the positive polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) has maintained high levels of electron flux at geostationary orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES-19 reached a peak of 4,840 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... Continued influence from the CH HSS will continue through 19 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV flux will be moderate to high, especially during the diurnal maxima, during this time. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 18 Jul barring any signficant flares that may occur from regions in the western hemisphere. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was between 5-8 nT with the Bz component oscillating between -7/+6 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged around 550 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector with brief oscillations into the negative sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH HSS influence through 19 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possiblethrough 19 Jul as HSS conditions persist.