Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
266 FXXX12 KWNP 280031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with numerous C-class flares observed from Region 4513 (N04W29, Dac/beta-gamma-delta). The largest flare was an impulsive C5.2 observed at 27/0141 UTC. Region 4513 remained the largest spot group on the disk and has shown some slight decay, but maintains a weak delta magnetic configuration. The other four regions are much simpler in their magnetic configuration, however Region 4517 (N10W44, Dso/beta) indicated some slight overall growth. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... A chance (45%) for isolated M-class flare activity, with a slight chance (10%) for X-class flare activity, will persist through 30 Aug primarily due to the current potential and flare history of Region 4513. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,732 pfu at 27/0500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to moderate levels on 28-30 Aug. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 30 Aug, mostly due to the potential for activity from Region 4513. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient-like regime. Total field was at or below 5 nT and the Bz component was near neutral. Solar wind speeds fell below 300 km/s and the phi angle was in a steady negative solar sector. .Forecast... Onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences are anticipated by early on 28 Aug. Additional solar wind disturbances, with increased solar wind densities and total IMF, are also likely on 28-29 Aug due to the impact of the CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. .Forecast... By early on 28 Aug, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS effects. Later on 28 Aug, G2 (Moderate) storm levels are likely due to additional disturbances caused by the anticipated arrival of the CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug. G1 to G2 storm levels are likely to persist through 29 Aug before waning conditions are expected on 30 Aug.