856
FXXX12 KWNP 170031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class activity observed from
Regions 4506 (N12W39, Dao/beta-gamma), 4507 (N04W22, Eai/beta-gamma) and
4508 (N07E10, Cso/beta). Region 4506 produced a C8.2/Sn at 16/1928 UTC,
the largest of the period, and the associated CME is being analyzed for
a potential Earth-directed component. The remaining numbered active
regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.

.Forecast...
Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (15%) for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 19 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to
moderate levels 17-18 Aug. High levels are expected on 19 Aug. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 19 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total
magnetic field strength was at under 5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained
low, with speeds observed between ~310-350 km/s. Phi angle was mostly
positive.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters from a CME that left the Sun over
14 Aug are likely over 17-18 Aug. A return to nominal conditions is
expected on 19 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
On Aug 17-18, active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor), is
anticipated with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 14 Aug.
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 19 Aug.