Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
004 FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels, with the largest event of the period a C2.4 flare at 10/1316 UTC from departed region Region 4505 (N15, L=340). There are three numbered sunspot regions remaining on the visible disk following the departure of Region 4505. Region 4503 (S18W13, Bxi/beta) showed modest new flux emergence. Region 4504 (S19W00, Axx/alpha) underwent consolidation in its leading spots while its trailing spots decayed, transitioning the region into a unipolar group. Region 4506 (N10E41, Bxo/beta) also showed modest new emergence. A new, unnumbered region has begun to emerge near the east limb near N06. Solar Orbiter HMI imagery suggests this is a bipolar group, though currently only its leading pole is visible, which alone appears larger than all other visible regions on the disk combined. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels 11-13 Aug. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels, reaching a peak flux of 506 pfu observed at 10/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 13 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 13 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a continued gradual return toward nominal conditions following 08 Aug enhancements. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) held weak and steady between 4.8 and 7.0 nT. The North-South (Bz) was mostly northward. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from early values near 435 km/s to around 350 km/s late in the period. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative (toward the Sun) orientation. .Forecast... The gradual decline toward nominal background conditions is expected to continue into 11 Aug. Slight enhancements are possible on 11 Aug into 12 Aug due to weak influences from a small positive polarity coronal hole. More significant solar wind enhancements are anticipated mid to late on 12 Aug with the arrival of CMEs that departed the Sun on 08 Aug with enhanced conditions persisting through 13 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for 11 Aug. Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are expected on 12 Aug due to CME influences, with quiet to unsettled conditions expected to prevail on 13 Aug as CME effects subside.