Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
250 FXXX12 KWNP 100031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels due to multiple low level M-class flares (R1-Minor), mostly from Region 4294 (S17W54, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The Region 4294 continues to show flux emergence in its leading spots creating instability and its activity. Region 4304 (N26W23, Dao/beta) experienced growth in both its leader and trailer - flux emergence in a weak circular formation would indicate higher flare potential but the region has been quiet. Newly numbered Region 4305 (S25E34, Cro/beta) continues to grow and was the source of a C3.7 flare at 09/2232 UTC. All other regions were stable or in decay. There were no Earth-directed CMEs in coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Chances for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity remain likely (65% chance), with a slight chance (15%) or R3 (Strong) activity. Probabilities remain elevated due to the large complex of the three regions in the southwest part of the disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained elevated - hovering around the 1,000 pfu threshold for much of the period. Electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached a maximum of 1572 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background. .Forecast... Without the geoeffective positioning of any coronal hole high speed stream until 13 Dec, electrons will continue to trend towards moderate levels through 12 Dec. Due the growth of Region 4294 and its favorable positioning in the west, there remains a slight chance (15%) for an S1 (Minor) radiation storming event. Probabilities will decrease as it moves beyond the western limb. The prolific proton producer, Region 4299, is in decay and contributes less to the forecast. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a slight disturbance starting around 09/0800 UTC, it is likely due to a transient CME that had little impact on the environment. The total interplanetary magnetic field was around 6 nT before jumping abruptly to 9 nT. The north-south (Bz) component remained between 0 to -5 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged around 380 km/s. The phi angle remaining in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind is expected to remain at nominal levels through 12 Dec, barring any minor transients that may pass through. Impact from these are unlikely. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels through 12 Dec. -Bri