Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
073 FXXX12 KWNP 050031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Apr 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4409 (N02W15, Eai/beta-gamma) produced an M7.5 flare (R2-Moderate) at 04/0117 UTC, the largest event of the period, as well as three additional M-class flares: an M1.7/Sf at 04/0758 UTC, an M1.2/1f at 04/1211 UTC, and an M1.0 at 04/2304 UTC. All of these flares were impulsive in nature, with no appreciable radio signatures or corroborating coronagraph imagery to suggest any of these events had CMEs associated with them. The region exhibited minor decay and separation among its leader spots. The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. Other activity included a filament eruption near S33E10 beginning at around 04/0930 UTC, as seen in SUVI-195 imagery. No related CME signature was identified in subsequent coronagraph imagery. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares, over 05-07 Apr, driven primarily by the flare potential of Region 4409. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,418 pfu at 04/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued its gradual trend towards background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 05-07 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 05-07 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters suggested the return of influence from a negative polarity coronal hole. Total magnetic field strength was steady around 5 nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Wind speeds gradually declined from ~650 km/s to near 600 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 07 Apr due to waning negative polarity CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels early in the UT day during the transition from the influence of CME that left the Sun on 01 Apr to a negative polarity coronal hole. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels early on 05 Apr, with quiet to unsettled levels expected thereafter, continuing into 06-07 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS influence gradually wane.