792
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Nov 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Only low-level C-class x-ray
activity was observed. Region 4290 (S10E74, Cao/beta) was numbered
during the period but has remained mostly inactive. Additional spots
were becoming visible just SE of Region 4290 that could be a separate
active region. Additional analysis will be accomplished once it has
rotated further onto the visible disk and is not as contaminated due to
foreshortening. No significant growth was observed among the remaining
numbered active regions. At about 21/1940 UTC, GOES-19 SUVI 195 and 304
imagery observed an eruption off the SE limb. LASCO-SOHO C2 imagery
detected a narrow CME off the SE, first visible at 21/2112 UTC. As more
imagery becomes available, analysis and modelling will be performed for
any Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over 22-24 Nov, with
a slight chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) as the new
active regions in the East move further onto the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, with a
maximum flux of 547 pfu at 21/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate
levels through 24 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in expected
to remain at background levels through 24 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a negative polarity
coronal hole, with a possible embedded transient early in the period.
Total magnetic field strength reached a peak near 15 nT at 21/0248 UTC
before slowly decreasing to average ~10 nT for the remainder of the
period. Isolated southward deflections to -9 nT were observed in Bz,
with solar wind speeds decreasing from just under 500 km/s to
end-of-period speeds closer to 480 km/s.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected to continue, but
wane, over 22 Nov due primarily to diminishing coronal hole effects.
Mostly nominal conditions are likely for 23-24 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 Nov as
weak solar wind enhancements diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on 23-24 Nov as CH HSS effects diminish.