Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
980 FXXX12 KWNP 200031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached Moderate levels early in the period with an impulsive M1.6/1n flare that peaked at 19/0903 UTC from Region 4551 (S15W59, Eko/beta-gamma). Associated with this flare was an F10.7cm radio emission that had a peak flux of 430 sfu. Region 4551 began to show signs of decay as it made its way towards the western limb, losing many of its intermediate spots. Despite its recent decaying trend, this region also added a few low C-class flares during the period. Region 4557 (N06W28, Dai/beta) exhibited slight growth during the period, adding a few leader and intermediate spots. This region was the main flare producer, adding several C-class flares during the period. Region 4560 (N14W01, Dro/beta) showed some new emergence in its intermediate area while being quiet throughout the period. Proper analysis of the CME first observed off the SW limb in CCOR-2 imagery at 18/2315 UTC could not be conducted due to lack of quality coronagraph imagery. However, due to the lack of corroborating imagery in STEREO COR2 imagery, as well as the faint, disappearing signature in the available CCOR2 imagery, an Earth directed component is not expected. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 22 Oct, with a chance (25%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 4551 and 4557. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 22 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with no S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms expected through 22 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced, but remained near background levels during the period. Total field (Bt) was around 5 nT, the Bz component was mostly positive, and solar wind speeds averaged between ~350 km/s to ~400 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to encounter weak enhancements on 20 Oct as the anticipated influences of a positive polarity CH HSS arrive. Elevated conditions are likely to persist through 21 Oct before beginning to ease by 22 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels over the past 24h. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Oct due to anticipated effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are likely on 21 Oct, followed by mostly unsettled conditions on 22 Oct as HSS effects wane.