Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
648 FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, with only isolated C-class flaring observed. The largest event of the period was a C1.5 flare from Region 4482 (S09W49, Hhx/alpha) at 14/0956 UTC. There are three numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk. Region 4482 continues to show slow decay within its trailing spots and is now a unipolar spot group magnetically. Region 4487 (N09W46, Axx/alpha) exhibited submergence within its leading spot, also becoming a unipolar single spot. Region 4489 (S07E47, Hsx/alpha) rotated further into view as a stable unipolar group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 16 July, with a decreasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares as old Region 4485 (S10, L=355) continues its transit beyond the west limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels, with a peak flux of 2,231 pfu observed at 13/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to low to moderate levels through 16 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background levels through 16 July. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a gradual decline toward ambient background conditions. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) held between 5 and 9 nT across the period. The North-South (Bz) component but was predominantly southward until approximately 13/2200 UTC with a maximum deviation of -6 nT before becoming variable later in the period. Solar wind speeds continued to trend downward, ending the period around 375 km/s. A possible transient was noted around 13/2215 UTC, marked by a slight, brief bump in density and subsequent rotations in the interplanetary magnetic field. The phi angle remained predominantly within the positive sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain somewhat enhanced due to residual disturbances through the early portions of 14 July before waning over the course of 15 July when an additional disturbance is possible due to proximity effects from a CME that departed the Sun on 12 July, followed by further enhancements later on 16 July from a weak negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single active period recorded in the middle of the period under likely transient influences. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels into 15 July. A return to unsettled to active conditions is possible later on 15 July with any glancing effects from the 12 July CME, though confidence in impact timing and potential remains low. Mostly quiet conditions with a chance for isolated unsettled periods are anticipated for 16 July under weak -CH HSS influences.