Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
983 FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels this period due to an X-class flare from Region 4274 (N24W24, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The long-duration X1.2/2B flare (R3-Strong) occurred at 10/0919 UTC, with associated Type-II (1321 km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps, and an F10.7 cm radio burst (860 sfu). This event also had a Castelli-U radio burst as well as an asymmetric halo CME with the bulk of the ejecta off the NW limb. Modelling of the event indicated arrival early on 12 Nov. Region 4274 continued to exhibit growth over the period with some separation within its intermediate spots. Movement observed along the inversion lines through the southern half of the spot group indicates the potential for further shearing. The larger trailing spots appeared to show some rotation. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. New Region 4280 (S09E61, Bxo/beta) was numbered. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class (R3-Strong) activity on 11-13 Nov due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,280 pfu observed at 10/1535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began to increase after 10/1000 UTC following the X1.2 flare at 10/0919 UTC. S1 (Minor) levels were reached at 10/1125 UTC with a peak flux of 28.2 pfu observed at 10/1405 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 11 Nov followed by a decrease to moderate levels on 12-13 Nov following the arrivals of the 09-10 CMEs. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above the S1 (Minor) threshold through 11 Nov with a decreasing chance on 12-13 Nov. Further enhancements are possible with the arrival of the 09-10 CMEs on 11 and 12 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced under continued HSS influence. Solar wind speed ranged from 475-597 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-8 nT while the Bz component was between +7/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to become further enhanced on 11-13 Nov with the arrival of two CMEs. The 09 Nov CME is expected to arrive late on 11 Nov followed by the 10 Nov CME early on 12 Nov (UTC day). Solar wind speeds exceeding 700 km/s is likely following the arrival. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are likely with the arrival of the 09 Nov CME by late on 11 Nov. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) levels are likely on 12 Nov with the arrival of the 10 Nov CME. Unsettled to G1 storming is likely on 13 Nov as conditions slowly wane.