Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
716 FXXX12 KWNP 250031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at low levels with only C-class flares observed. Region 4291 (S16E37, Eai/beta-gamma) remains the most complex region on the disk but has been fairly quiet. Consolidation of spots and a more symmetric leader coupled with reduced flux emergence in its intermediate region reduces the probability of greater flare activity moving forward. Region 4290 (S11E29, Cso/beta) was also responsible for a few flares but is starting to decay. All other regions were either stable or in decay. There were no Earth directed CMEs in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Due to the simple structure of the active regions on the disk, flare probabilities remain low with a 15% chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a 1% chance for X-class (Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been suppressed due to the arrival of a coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). Wind speeds increased to 700 km/s which suppressed the usual increase during the diurnal maxima. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will like remained suppressed through 26 Nov when wind speeds are at their strongest. As wind speeds decrease, the Van Allen belts will rebound bringing with them a higher concentration of electrons. Electrons during this time 26-27 Nov will likely cross the 1,000 pfu threshold. With magnetically simple regions on the disk, chances for elevated proton levels through 27 Nov remains very low. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced throughout the period due to the early arrival of a co-rotating interacting region (CIR) and its associated CH HSS. It is also possible that two transient CMEs were embedded in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) as well. Both left the disk on 20 Nov from the southwest with mean velocities of 400 km/s. Their rough arrival would have been about now. The total field (Bt) reached 15 nT with the north-south (Bz) component dipping to -11 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 425 km/s to 700 km/s. The phi angle was variable during CIR and possible transient arrival and has transitioned to the positive (away from the Sun) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are to remain enhanced through 27 Nov due to the continued influence of the CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was active to unsettled due to the arrival of the aforementioned CIR/transients/HSS. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is to remain enhanced through 27 Nov due to the continued influence of the CH HSS. Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming conditions are likely. -Bri