Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
838 FXXX12 KWNP 100031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels after 09/1500 UTC, when new flux in the NE rapidly emerged and began producing continuous small C-flares, with the largest being a C1.8/sf at 09/1640 UTC. The new region was numbered as Region 4505 (N16W79, Bxo/beta). There were only two other numbered regions on disk, those in the SE quadrant, and both were quiet and largely stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be remain at low levels on 10 Aug, purely due to the flare potential of Region 4505, before decreasing back to very low levels on 11-12 Aug. Solar Orbiter PHI imagery suggests no significant returning regions during the forecast period. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low levels through 12 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 12 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a gradual return to background conditions after the arrival of the CME early on 08 Aug. Total field started the reporting period at approximately 16 nT and had decreased to approximately 6 nT by 09/0905 UTC, maintaining that average for the remainder of the period. The Bz component of the IMF was largely northward/positive. Solar wind speeds gradually increasing from approximately 350 km/s to an average of 425 km/s by the end of the reporting period and the phi angle being predominantly in the negative sector indicate that we may also be entering a moderate HSS from a positive polarity CH. .Forecast... Moderate background conditions are expected to continue, if not lessen, through 10 Aug. The anticipated arrivals of another CH HSS and a CME that left the Sun on 08 Aug are expected to produce a disturbed solar wind late on 11 Aug and into 12 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... 10 Aug is expected to remain at largely quiet-unsettled levels. Unsettled conditions are expected to persist through 11 Aug, with the potential for an isolated active period, due to anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions, with the potential for an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period, are anticipated on 12 Aug due to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 08 Aug.