Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
516 FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels with occasional C-class flaring. The largest event of the period was a C1.5 flare at 24/0903 UTC from Region 4536 (N02W33, Dsi, beta). Eight numbered sunspot regions are present on the visible disk. Region 4535 (N12E29, Dso/beta) saw new flux emergence in its trailing spots. Region 4536 continued to grow, consolidating at both magnetic poles. Region 4537 (N07W47, Dao/beta) experienced growth and consolidation, primarily within its trailing portion. Region 4542 (S18E29, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period. All other regions were stable or in a state of decay. A solar filament near S21E26 lifted off around 23/1600 UTC. While observations were partially hindered by data gaps in COR2 imagery, available coronagraph imagery indicates the material was reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with isolated to occasional C-class flare activity, along with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) M-class flare events, through 26 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, but crossed briefly crossed 1,000 pfu in an unsustained fashion at 23/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to cross into high levels above 1,000 pfu in geosynchronous orbit beginning on 24 Sep and remaining at high levels through 26 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 26 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing onset and strengthening of positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS) influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased, ranging between 10 and 15 nT late in the period. The North-South (Bz) component experienced notable southward deflections, reaching a peak negative excursion near -13 nT around 24/0520 and 24/0815 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased throughout the period, rising from early values near 280-290 km/s to 380-410 km/s late in the period. The phi angle shifted into a predominantly positive (away from the Sun) sector. .Forecast... Faster solar wind associated with the aforementioned positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to arrive during the first half of 24 Sep. Enhanced conditions are expected to then persist through 25 Sep before beginning to slowly wane over the course of 26 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached unsettled to active levels later in the reporting period under strengthening +CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 24 Sep as +CH HSS influences strengthen. Isolated active levels are likely to persist into 25 and 26 Sep as disturbances continue, but gradually diminish.