Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
837 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels this period. Region 4105 (S14W76, Dso/beta) produced numerous R1 (Minor) flares and an R2 (Moderate) flare, an M6.8/1n at 14/2301 UTC. At 15/0756 UTC, Rgn 4105 produced an M2.2/1n flare with an associated 488 km/s Type II sweep. This flare produced a CME off the west limb that is undergoing analysis for any Earth-directed component. Region 4105 had new flux emergence north of its leader spots. Moderate growth occurred in Region 4114 (N17E19, Dkc/beta-gamma) while slight growth and flux emergence also occurred in Region 4110 (N05W65, Dai/beta). Slight growth and development occurred in Region 4116 (S12E19, Dao/beta). No additional CMEs were observed this period. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) through 17 Jun. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15-17 Jun. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) through 17 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a transition to a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 430 km/s to between 480-535 km/s. Total field decreased to near 7 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... HSS conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period (15-17 Jun) with variations in solar wind speed. An increase in speed is possible later on 16 June when there is a better connection with the HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS effects. .Forecast... HSS activity is expected to cause unsettled to active periods on 15-17 Jun. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm periods are likely on 15-16 Jun.