919
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with C1 flares observed from
Region 4535 (N12W38, Csi/beta-gamma), which developed additional spots
this period while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay.

A large filament eruption was observed near 28/1300 UTC, centered near
N04W44. This is likely associated with a CME that was first seen off the
west in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1448 UTC. Modeling of the ejecta is
ongoing, but initial speed estimates would suggest a flanking
arrival on 02 Oct.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach low levels with a slight chance for an
M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 01 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of
4,130 pfu at 28/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
29 Sep - 01 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels through 01 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters showed diminishing CH HSS influences and the
return of ambient-like solar wind conditions. Total magnetic field
strength was less than 5 nT throughout the reporting period, and the Bz
component varied between +1/-2 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased
from 375 km/s at the beginning of the period to 322 km/s by the end. The
phi angle was positive.

.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 29 Sep - 01
Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 29 Sep - 01
Oct.