Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
259 FXXX12 KWNP 011231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was very low in the past 24h, with no C-class or greater flares observed. Both active regions currently numbered in the visible disk showed some decay during the period: Region 4544 (S09W36, Cro/beta) and Region 4535 (N11W65, Dso/beta). No Earth-directed CME was observed in the coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-flares and a slight chance for an M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 03 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of 3,120 pfu at 30/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 01-02 Oct and moderate levels on 03 Oct due to the anticipated geomagnetic activity on 02 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 03 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters showed ambient conditions with a speed between 270-300 km/s and total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength below 6 nT. The IMF vector components oscillated between -/+ 6 nT in response to multiple sector crossings occurred in the past 24h, and Bz remained predominantly positive. The phi angle varied accordingly. .Forecast... Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through mid-day on 02 Oct, when disturbances caused by flanking influences from a CME that left the Sun on 28 Sep are likely to be observed near Earth. On 03 Oct, solar wind enhancements might persist as the CME effects wane and the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS are anticipated. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field remained quiet during the past 24h. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue mostly quiet through mid-day on 02 Oct, when G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely due to influences from the 28 Sep CME. Active conditions are anticipated for 03 Oct as the CME impact wanes and a positive CH HSS influence begins near Earth.