Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
842 FXXX12 KWNP 240031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4493 (N06W32, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) continued to grow in overall length while showing signs of decay in its intermediate region and produced a C5.4 flare 23/0327 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 4494 (S04E40, Cao/beta-delta) showed signs of evolution as it gained additional spots and formed a delta in its leading asymmetric penumbra. Region 4495 (S02E28, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. A new spot group was observed entering the eastern limb near approximately N05E75, but it remains unnumbered at this time as we await corroborating solar observatory reports. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2 radio blackouts) is likely (55%) through 25 July primarily due to the flare potential currently exhibited by AR 4493 and the development ongoing in AR 4494. M-class flare probabilities decrease to a high chance (45%) on 25 and 26 July given the current rate of decay and consolidation in AR 4493. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 25 Jul with a chance for high levels returning on 25 Jul with post high speed stream and possible CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 26 Jul with a 5% chance for an S1 or greater event primarily due to the event potential of AR 4493. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced under negative polarity CH HSS conditions. Total field reached peaks of 10-11 nT while the Bz component remained disturbed, undergoing several southward deflections reaching - 5 to -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased over the course of the period, reaching peaks upwards of 700 km/s. .Forecast... The current regime is expected to largely continue through 25 Jul. Additional enhancements are possible by early to midday on 24 Jul due to possible CME arrival from events that left the Sun on 20 and 21 Jul. However, this outcome is low confidence as modeling efforts predict a bulk of the material to be northward of Earths orbit. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to continue on 24 Jul under sustained negative polarity CH HSS effects and any glancing influences from the aforementioned CME events from 20 and 21 Jul. Again, modeling suggests that a bulk of the material from this event should pass north of Earth, but higher levels of geomagnetic storming (25% for G2 or greater) cannot be ruled out if this event is indeed more Earth-directed than predicted.