Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
117 FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to high levels again after Region 4549 (N09W54, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M6.4/1n flare (R2-Moderate radio blackout) that peaked at 10/1510 UTC. Associated with the flare were a Type II radio sweep (est. speed 929 km/s) and a 10cm radio burst (240 sfu). Additionally, an associated CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1548 UTC. Initial analysis indicated a near miss just ahead of Earth. However, modeling had the trajectory close enough to not rule out possible grazing of Earth late on 12 Oct. Additional analysis will be conducted for more conclusive results. Region 4549 continued to maintain a delta magnetic configuration with slight decay observed, mainly in the trailer and intermediate spots. This region also produced an M1.2 flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) at 10/1412 UTC, as well as multiple C-class flares. Region 4547 (N15, L=089) produced a C4.2 at 10/0813 UTC that had an associated CME first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 10/0824 UTC. This CME is not anticipated to have an Earth impact due the far-sided location of the source region. Region 4545 (N17W60, Cao/beta) continued to decay with no activity noted during the period. Region 4548 (S13W26, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive, while Region 4552 (N22W34, Bxo/beta) continued to simplify. Region 4551 (S14E61, Eki/beta) continued to move into view but was inactive. A new area of flux emergence was noted on the east limb near N07 that will be monitored for possible development. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels (99%) with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely (55-65%) through 13 Oct, primarily due to the flaring potential of Region 4549. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels (peak value of 2,169 pfu) before they were redistributed by the passing CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 12 Oct before increasing to high levels on 13 Oct. There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 12 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters began the period slightly enhanced, likely a combination of weak glancing transient and negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences. At 10/1434 UTC, an interplanetary shock was observed a L1, indicating the arrival of the anticipated CME(s) from 07-08 Oct. Total field initially increased to 26 nT before eventually increasing to reach a peak of 46 nT at 10/1518 UTC. Initial Bz deflections reached -16 nT, but eventually deflected further south to a maximum of -29 nT at 10/1624 UTC. Solar wind speeds jumped from 400 km/s to over 530 km/s early, then steadily increased to a peak just over 900 km/s at 10/1753 UTC. Density increased to over 100 ppcm3 and Phi slowly oscillated between sectors over the course of the reporting period. .Forecast... Additional enhancements are expected early on 11 Oct as CME effects persist. Conditions are expected to diminish by midday, yet remain slightly enhanced throughout the remainder of the period and into 12 Oct. Late on 12 Oct, a north-south oriented negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position, re-enhancing the solar wind environment. CH effects are expected to persist into 13 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet to unsettled levels. The arrival of the 07-08 Oct CME(s) pushed geomagnetic storm activity to reach G3 (Strong) levels by midday. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected, with G2 (Moderate) levels likely early on 11 Oct due to persistent CME effects. Conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced at unsettled to isolated active levels through 12 Oct as CME effects diminish and -CH HSS influence persists. By late on 12 Oct and into 13 Oct, conditions are expected to increase to mostly active conditions, with increased chances for isolated G1 (Minor) storming as the north-south oriented negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.