Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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393
FXXX12 KWNP 141231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jun 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4105 (S15W64,
Eki/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1.2/1f flare at 13/2110 UTC; the
strongest event of the period. Slight growth was observed in Regions
4110 (N06W51,
Dsi/beta) and 4114 (N17E33, Dai/beta). Slight decay and consolidation
was observed in Region 4105. New Region 4116 (S12E32, Dao/beta) was
numbered. The remaining regions were mostly stable. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 16 Jun.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with an
isolated measurement above high levels. The peak flux was a single
reading of 1,230 pfu observed at 13/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 14-16 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 16 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent CME effects that
transitioned to CIR effects later in the period. Total field ranged from
4-18 nT and the Bz component was negative throughout a majority of the
period, reaching a maximum of -14 nT. Solar wind speed was in the
373-536 km/s range. Phi angle was mostly negative through 13/2221 UTC
when phi changed to a positive orientation.

.Forecast...
CME effects are expected to persist through midday on 14 Jun followed by
a transition into a positive polarity CH HSS by late on 14 Jun to early
on 15 Jun. HSS conditions are expected to persist through 16 Jun. Solar
wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s are possible based on recurrence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels due to persistent CME effects.

.Forecast...
Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are expected, with a
chance for G3 (Strong) levels, on 14 Jun as CME effects persist through
midday on 14 Jun, followed by a transition into a positive polarity CH
HSS. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 15-16 Jun as CH HSS
influences persist.