Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
775 FXXX12 KWNP 300031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 4563 (S18W81, Axx/alpha) decayed as rotates off the west solar limb. A new active region rotated into the visible disk and was numbered during the period: Region 4564 (N05E68, Axx/alpha). A filament eruption at the SW quadrant was first observed by GOES/SUVI 304A around 29/0830 UTC, and later was visible in LASCO/C2 imagery after 29/1036 UTC. Preliminary analysis indicated a slow Earth-directed component but further modeling suggested its trajectory is missing Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed at the available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for isolated C-class flares through 31 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1,228 pfu observed at 29/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on 30 Oct Oct and remaining there through 01 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to persist at background levels through 01 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected undisturbed conditions near Earth, with the speeds decreasing from 375 km/s to 325 km/s levels during the period. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained below 5 nT in the past 24h with a Bz (north-south) component mostly near neutral or northward. A sharp decrease of density at 29/1624 UTC was due to a data processing isolated correction, and does not reflect any solar wind physical transient. The phi angle was largely negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Solar wind disturbances are likely to occur late on 30 Oct, continuing into 31 Oct - 01 Nov, due to a recurrent, equatorial positive polarity CH HSS that is anticipated to become geoeffective. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period. .Forecast... Unsettled to active geomagnetic levels are expected by late on 30 Oct as the positive polarity CH HSS effects begin, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming becoming likely on 31 Oct and 01 Nov.