Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
284 FXXX12 KWNP 060031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels, with occasional B-class flaring and isolated low-level C-class flares observed. The largest event of the period was a C1.6/Sf flare at 05/0622 UTC from Region 4502 (S07W39, Dso/beta). The six numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk are mostly stable or in varying stages of decay. Region 4498 (N15W43, Hsx/Alpha) showed a slight decrease in penumbral extent. Region 4499 (N04W81, Cro/beta) declined in length and area, though limb foreshortening hindered complete characterization of its magnetic structure. Region 4500 (N19W39, Cro/beta) weakened in its leading spot. Region 4501 (S07W82, Hsx/alpha) lost its trailing spots, decaying into a unipolar group. Region 4502 (S07W39, Dso/beta) exhibited consolidation across both magnetic poles. Region 4503 (S18E54, Cro/beta) was limited by foreshortening near the southeast limb, but appeared to show modest new flux emergence in its trailing spots to become a bipolar group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... With ongoing region decay and several active regions in the western hemisphere expected to rotate off the disk over the coming days, there is a decreasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 06-08 Aug. Current Solar Orbiter HMI imagery suggests no significant returning regions during the forecast period. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels with a peak flux of 387 pfu observed at 05/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 08 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 06-08 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained at quiet, ambient levels throughout the period. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) held weak, staying below 4.5 nT and ending the period near 2 nT. The North-South (Bz) component varied mildly within a narrow +/- 3 nT envelope. Solar wind speeds reflected a slow wind regime, gradually declining from early values near 400 km/s down to approximately 345 km/s late in the period. The phi angle remained predominantly in the positive (away from the Sun) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain in a slow wind regime through early 07 Aug. By late 07 Aug, enhancements are anticipated to begin due to the arrival of CMEs that departed the Sun on 03 Aug. These CME enhancements may persist into 08 Aug, alongside potential weak influences from a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) that is likely too far south to become significantly geoeffective. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet into 07 Aug. Active conditions with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are possible late on 07 Aug in response to CME arrivals, with unsettled conditions likely persisting into 08 Aug as CME influences wane.