Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
405 FXXX12 KWNP 291231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 29 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Despite showing decay and weakening throughout the period, Region 4475 (S07W43, Dai/beta-gamma) produced a C9.5 at 28/2117 UTC (the largest flare of the period), as well as a C3.0 flare at 29/0250 UTC. Region 4478 (S05E01, Fki/beta-gamma-delta) maintained its weak delta configuration as it observed minor decay and separation between its leading spots and trailing spots. this region only yielded a C4.1 flare at 29/0340 UTC. Region 4479 (N15W05, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited significant development, gaining a delta configuration and multiple intermediate spots, and was the primary contributor to the overall flare activity. The largest events from this region included: a C8.7 at 28/2159 UTC, a C6.5/Sf at 29/0758 UTC, and a C8.1/Sf at 29/0828 UTC. This region added multiple low and mid level C-class flares as well. The other regions on the visible disk continued to decay and were inactive. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on 29-30 Jun and 01 Jul. Isolated M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater), primarily due to the potential of Regions 4475 and 4479. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a maximum flux of 2,627 pfu at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated to moderate to high levels over 29-30 Jun and 01 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 01 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters returned to near background levels. Total magnetic field strength averaged around 4 nT, the Bz component experienced no significant southward deflections, and solar wind speeds decreased to settled under 400 km/s by the end of the period. Phi remained mostly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain near background levels through most of 29 Jun. Enhanced conditions are anticipated to return by late 29 Jun to midday on 30 Jun with the predicted arrival of the CME that left the Sun late on 26 Jun. Additional enhancements are again likely on 01 Jul as the CME from 27 Jun is forecast to reach Earth. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected for most of 29 Jun. Unsettled to active levels are then expected, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely, and a slight chance for G2 (Moderate) levels by early 30 Jun, due to the potential arrival of the 26 Jun CME. Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected on 01 Jul. There is also a chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming on 01 Jul with the anticipated arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun, though confidence is low with this forecast.